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Spurs open title defense Tuesday vs. Mavs
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/28/2014  at  4:07:00 AM
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DALLAS MAVERICKS (0-0)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (0-0)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -4.5, Total: 205.5

The Spurs’ road for a repeat begins Tuesday night with a home meeting versus the retooled Mavericks.

San Antonio won the NBA Championship last season and will be receiving their rings in front of the Dallas players, who pushed the Spurs to seven games in the first round of last year’s playoffs. San Antonio kept its roster intact, while the Mavericks made moves to acquire Tyson Chandler, Jameer Nelson and Chandler Parsons. Their key losses were Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert, both of whom were starters on last season's team. In the past 10 meetings between these Texas teams, Dallas is just 3-7 SU, but an outstanding 7-3 ATS. Five of the past six meetings between these teams have gone Over the Total, including three in a row. Last season, both of these teams were amongst the top five in the NBA in ATS win percentage. The Mavericks went 50-39 ATS overall, including a stellar 30-15 ATS on the road (3rd-best in NBA), while San Antonio was 58-47 ATS, but only 29-25 ATS at home. Dallas will be missing PG Raymond Felton (ankle) for this contest, while San Antonio will be without both C Tiago Splitter (calf) and PG Patrick Mills (shoulder). NBA Finals MVP SF Kawhi Leonard (eye) is considered questionable for this matchup.

Can the Spurs open their title defense with a convincing win? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Zach posted a 54% ATS mark (65-56-4) in NBA Best Bets last season, while StatFox Forecaster had a 53.4% ATS (207-181-12) in featured games last season.

The Mavericks were just one game away from advancing in last year’s playoffs and realizing how close they were prompted owner Mark Cuban to make changes in order to bring his team to the next level. Dallas shipped out two starters and brought back C Tyson Chandler, the defensive anchor who helped the club win an NBA Championship in 2011. Chandler isn’t as good as he was during that title run, but he did average 8.7 PPG, 9.6 RPG and 1.1 BPG last season. He should be able to provide some toughness inside for this team, while also focusing on defending Tim Duncan on Tuesday, so that PF Dirk Nowitzki can use most of his energy on the offensive end. Nowitzki averaged 21.7 PPG during the 2013-14 regular season, but tallied only 19.1 PPG in the playoffs versus San Antonio. He should be in for a big game on opening night, as he’s well rested and re-energized after Dallas built yet another contender around him. SF Chandler Parsons is this team’s X-factor after signing a three-year, $46 million deal this summer. Parsons averaged 16.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 4.0 APG last season with the Rockets, and is going to provide this team with defense, athleticism and the ability to score in a number of ways. SG Monta Ellis is back to build on an excellent first season in Dallas, where he averaged 19.0 PPG and 5.7 APG. This team feels that it made the changes required to edge out this San Antonio team in the Western Conference, and will do everything it can to prove that on opening night.

The Spurs defeated the Heat in last year’s NBA championship, putting on one of the most beautiful displays of team basketball that this league has ever seen. Every player on this club has bought into head coach Gregg Popovich’s system and not one guy feels like they are above the rest. SF Kawhi Leonard is this year’s player to watch for San Antonio, as he averaged 14.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 1.7 SPG in the playoffs while also taking home the NBA Finals MVP. Leonard is just 23 years old and is expected to take on a bigger role in the offense this season. He’ll get the first crack at defending the Mavericks’ prized pickup, SF Chandler Parsons. The Spurs "Big 3” of PG Tony Parker, SG Manu Ginobili and PF Tim Duncan will be out to prove that they still have plenty left in the tank. Ginobili played through a stress fracture in his leg in the playoffs last season, but he is feeling great after rehabbing it over the summer. Duncan’s minutes will continue to be monitored this season in order for Popovich to get the most out of the future Hall of Famer. He’ll spend a lot of time going up against Tyson Chandler, so he’ll really need to work hard in order to get his points in the opener. Parker should be in for the biggest game of the bunch, as he’ll be guarded by the defensively challenged Jameer Nelson. Key reserves like C Boris Diaw and SG Marco Belinelli are back to gear this team up for the title defense. San Antonio is going off as 3-to-1 to win the NBA championship, second to only the Cavaliers.


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