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Patriots aim for 6th straight win Sunday at Colts
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/16/2014  at  5:02:00 AM
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-2)
at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -3, Total: 57.5

The Patriots look to win their sixth straight game when they visit the Colts on Sunday night.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Both teams should be well-rested after having their byes last week that followed five straight wins (4-1 ATS) for New England, and six wins in the past seven contests (6-1 ATS) for Indianapolis. The Patriots have won four straight meetings with the Colts SU, covering in two of those four. All of those games were, however, played in Foxboro. New England has dropped its past two games SU in Indianapolis, but did cover the spread in both, making the club 12-3 ATS on the road in this series since 1992. This matchup will be tough for Colts QB Andrew Luck, as he’s facing a New England team that is allowing just 235.1 passing yards per game. He is 0-2 (SU and ATS) against the Patriots in his career, throwing for 332.5 yards per game, but only four touchdowns with seven interceptions. New England QB Tom Brady is 11-4 SU in 15 career starts versus Indy with 3,604 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 27 TD and 12 INT. Over the past three seasons, the Colts are 13-1 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. They are also 6-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium after scoring 30+ points in their previous game in that span. However, the Pats are 44-22 ATS (67%) when playing as an underdog since Bill Belichick was hired as the head coach.

Which AFC powerhouse will extend its winning streak on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past eight weeks, combining for a 58% ATS mark (72-52). StatFox Scott is 69% ATS (22-10) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 63% ATS (25-15) on the season. StatFox Dave is 60% ATS (21-14) in Best Bets during these eight weeks to improve to 56% ATS (25-20) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 54% ATS (15-13) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 70% record (21-9) for the season. StatFox Gary is coming off a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in his Week 10 Best Bets.

New England is one of the hottest teams in football and that all begins with the magnificent play of QB Tom Brady (2,392 pass yards, 22 TD, 3 INT). During the team's five straight wins, Brady has completed 68% of his passes for 1,601 yards (320.2 per game), 8.1 YPA, 18 TD and only 1 INT. He should keep that going against a Colts defense that is prone to giving up big passing games. TE Rob Gronkowski (49 rec, 663 yards, 8 TD) has been on a tear recently, surpassing 100 receiving yards in each of the past two games with four total touchdowns in those contests. Gronkowski should be able to get himself open across the middle against this Indianapolis defense, and Brady will surely find him if he does. This defense will ultimately decide whether or not the Patriots have a chance to steal a big victory on the road. New England has done well against Andrew Luck in the past, but he is a different quarterback than the guy they faced last year. Darrelle Revis (2 INT) will need to lock down T.Y. Hilton in order for Luck to have an off-game.

The Colts have won six of their past seven games and that has plenty to do with the play of their superstar QB Andrew Luck (3,085 pass yards, 26 TD, 9 INT). Luck is an MVP candidate at this point in the season and is coming off a game in which he threw for 354 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs against the Giants. Luck has thrown for 300+ yards in eight of the nine games his team has played this year and will look to keep that up against a rock-solid Patriots secondary. Top WR T.Y. Hilton (56 rec, 937 yards, 3 TD) has been his go-to-guy all season long and has now caught touchdowns in three of the past four games. He had racked up at least 100 receiving yards in three straight games before having just three catches for 71 yards and a touchdown in the blowout win over the Giants. The Colts’ defensive play is where they can really run into trouble. Indianapolis is allowing only 98.1 rushing yards per game (9th in NFL), but the Patriots are not a team that beats you on the ground. They’re going to throw the ball early and often against this Indy defense that is allowing 263.6 passing yards per game (27th in NFL). The Colts will need to be prepared to slow down the Patriots’ passing game and if they do that they could pick up their second straight win.


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