Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -6.5, Total: 56.5

No. 5 TCU looks to get closer to a playoff berth as they travel to Austin to take on Texas on Thanksgiving night.

The Horned Frogs were off last week, which followed a major struggle in a narrow 34-30 win at 28-point underdog Kansas. However, TCU was still able to win its fifth straight game (3-2 ATS) where it has averaged 46.0 PPG. The Longhorns have had some ups and downs in head coach Charlie Strong’s first season, but the team is playing its best football right now. Texas has won its past three games (SU and ATS) by a combined score of 95 to 36, which included a 33-16 win against then-No. 23 West Virginia. But that was the only ranked team the Longhorns have beaten, as they are 1-4 SU versus top-25 schools, with two of those defeats coming at home. Last year, these two teams played in Fort Worth, with the 3-point underdog Longhorns winning, 30-7. Texas dominated the game, outgaining the Horned Frogs 415 to 246, including 187 to 45 on the ground. But in the first Big 12 meeting between these schools in Austin in 2012, TCU prevailed 20-13 by outrushing the Longhorns 217 to 86. Both schools have powerful betting trends against them, as excellent offensive road favorites (34+ PPG) facing an average defense (21 to 28 PPG allowed) after a win by six points or less are just 9-31 ATS (23%) in the past 10 seasons, but underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent coming off a road win are just 25-63 ATS (28%) in the past 10 seasons. There are a couple of key offensive injuries in this game with TCU RB B.J. Catalon (shoulder) considered questionable to play, while Texas WR Jaxon Shipley (leg) has been upgraded to probable.

Can TCU avoid the upset in Austin on Thanksgiving night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 6-1 ATS mark in College Football Best Bets over the past two weeks.

The Horned Frogs have been great on both sides of the ball this year, but it is the improvement of the offense that has this team within striking distance of the first college football playoffs. The offense ranks 2nd in FBS scoring (45.9 PPG), 8th in passing (323.6 YPG) and 28th in rushing (218 YPG). Junior QB Trevone Boykin (3,021 pass yards, 548 rush yards, 31 total TD) had many doubters last season when he threw just 7 TD with 7 INT, but is now one of the top candidates for the Heisman trophy with 24 passing TD and only 5 INT. He is a tremendous athlete, but his improved composure and poise has helped him take the next step as a quarterback. RB Aaron Green (677 rush yards, 8.3 YPC, 6 TD) is a speedster who is tough to stop once he gets to the second level of the defense. His backfield mate, junior RB B.J. Catalon (493 rush yards, 5.0 YPC, 10 TD) has battled some injuries, but he is the guy that can take over the game late when TCU needs some first downs. At receiver, junior WRs Josh Doctson (693 rec yards, 7 TD), Kolby Listenbee (606 rec yards, 3 TD) and Deante' Gray (486 rec yards, 7 TD) are all capable of going for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns on any given game. Other than the 61-58 loss at Baylor, the TCU defense has played very well this season. The unit gives up 23.1 PPG (35th in FBS), and has one of the biggest playmakers in the country on that side of the ball in LB Paul Dawson (105 tackles, 15 TFL, 5 sacks, 3 INT, 2 FF). Dawson can make plays anywhere on the field, in any kind of situation. He has the ability to guard slot receivers when needed, and can cause a lot of havoc in the backfield. In the secondary, S Chris Hackett (6 INT, 66 tackles, 3.5 TFL) can not only cover, but he is not afraid to come up and make plays against the run as well.

It has been a tough season in Austin, but the Longhorns are playing their best football at the end of the season. The offense has been up-and-down, ranking 77th in FBS rushing (154.0 YPG), 80th in passing (212.9 YPG) and 98th in scoring (23.7 PPG). Sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes (2,152 pass yards, 12 TD, 6 INT) has steadily improved since being thrown into the starting job, showing the potential that has Longhorns fans' hopes high for the future. He is a threat to make plays with both his arm and legs, and at 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, he can be very difficult for defenses to tackle. The ground game of RBs Malcolm Brown (654 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD) and Johnathan Gray (627 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 7 TD) has been inconsistent, but both backs are capable of having big days. The Horned Frogs are going to focus on stopping those two, so the Texas air attack will have to perform at a high level. WR John Harris (59 catches, 976 yards, 7 TD) is the big-play threat on the roster, using his size and speed to get behind the defense. Senior WR Jaxon Shipley (58 catches, 571 yards, 1 TD) complements him perfectly, going over the middle and making the tough catches. He is being slowed by a leg injury, but he should be good to go on Thursday night. The defense has been great all year, ranking 24th in the country in points allowed (21.0 PPG). LBs Jordan Hicks (136 tackles, 12 TFL, 2.5 sacks) and Steve Edmond (116 tackles, 12 TFL, 4.5 sacks) are one of the best tackling duos in college football. Both of them do a great job of stopping the run, while also getting pressure on the quarterback. In the secondary, senior CB Quandre Diggs (60 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 INT) is the heart and soul of this defense, always rallying the team when it needs it.