Poinsettia Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Diego State -2.5, Total: 53.5

San Diego State looks to grab a win at home in the Poinsettia Bowl against Navy on Tuesday night.

Navy did not look at all like a team ready to go to a bowl game to open the 2014 season when it started 2-4 (both SU and ATS) with losses as the favorite against Rutgers, Western Kentucky and Air Force. The Midshipmen were able to turn things around and captured five of their final six contests SU (3-3 ATS) while bringing a three-game winning streak into this one. They allowed fewer than 20 points in three of those final five victories as they earned their spot in a bowl game for the 11th time in the past 12 seasons. Navy was able to get an easy win when it went to the Armed Forces Bowl against Middle Tennessee as 7-point favorites last season, prevailing 24-6 in its first playoff win since 2009. San Diego State was horrible this year when playing on the road as it went just 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS), but made up for it when playing in its home stadium with a perfect 6-0 SU record (3-2-1 ATS) there while holding opponents to a mere 12.7 PPG and committing just three turnovers. In the Humanitarian Bowl against Buffalo last season, oddsmakers made the spread a pick, but the Aztecs proved they were the better team with a big 49-24 victory, marking their first bowl win since 2010. That game four years ago was also the Poinsettia Bowl and was also against this Midshipmen team. San Diego State dominated Navy by a score of 35-14 as 3-point favorites, while holding them to a scoreless second half. The teams combined to rush the ball for 514 yards, but the Aztecs held the 276-147 edge in passing and forced the only turnover in the contest. Some betting trends to keep an eye on for this rematch include that Navy is 54-20 ATS (73%) as a road underdog since 1992, while SDSU has gone 9-2 ATS (82%) after having won four or five of its past six games in the past three seasons. Midshipmen QB Keenan Reynolds (ankle) is the biggest name on the injury report for either team but is considered probable to play in this one. There are no other significant omissions on either side of the ball.

Can San Diego State capture this victory on its home field? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 73% ATS mark (8-3) in College Football Best Bets in the past four weeks of the regular season, while StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (10-6) in Best Bets over the past five weeks. Brian began his bowl season with a perfect 6-0 ATS record in all picks, while Dave, StatFox Scott and StatFox Forecaster are all 4-2 ATS in bowl picks.

Navy’s triple-option offense has led to the nation's second-best rushing attack at 345.1 YPG on the ground. The club also adds 86.8 passing YPG (2nd-worst in nation), to help produce its 33.1 PPG in the 2014 season. QB Keenan Reynolds (826 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) heads into the game as the top signal caller in FBS in both rushing touchdowns (21) and rushing yards (1,182) while rumbling for 100+ yards six times over 10 contests. He didn’t do too much when called on to pass though, as he threw for more than 100 yards just three times while completing a putrid 47.1% of his passes. The trademark triple-option gave plenty of players the chance to run the ball, and besides Reynolds, six different Navy ball carriers had at least 25 attempts, with five of them scoring at least three touchdowns. HB Noah Copeland (889 rush yards, 5 TD) was the best of the bunch, as he went for 7.6 YPC and managed to eclipse the century mark in rushing five different times. WR Jamir Tillman (20 rec, 386 yards, 3 TD) is the only pass-catcher with more than 10 receptions, as he has averaged a whopping 19.3 yards per catch and has two of his three touchdowns in the past three games. Unfortunately for the Midshipmen, their defense could not keep up with the offense, as they allowed 28.3 PPG to the opposition while managing to do quite well against the pass (210.6 YPG allowed). Senior LB Jordan Drake (96 tackles, 1 sack) is the leader on this side of the ball and will be a major factor in the outcome of Tuesday's game.

San Diego State also leans heavily on its ball carriers as the team is gaining 218.6 rushing YPG (30th in FBS), while failing to do much through the air (181.5 YPG), and has scored just 25.8 PPG. QB Quinn Kaehler (2,016 pass yards, 9 TD, 10 INT) did not do too great in his second season as the starter, but has turned things around a little bit over the past four games; throwing 5 TD to just 2 INT and averaging 195.5 YPG. It was HB Donnel Pumphrey (1,755 rush yards, 19 TD) who did all the heavy lifting for the offense, as he ran the ball 21.3 times per game for 6.9 YPC. He gained more than 100 yards in all but three of his 12 games on the year while scoring in all but two, and had six touchdowns in his final three performances. Change-of-pace HB Chase Price (605 rush yards, 5 TDs) will also get plenty of chances to run the ball, and is coming off a solid game against San Jose State (93 rush yards, 1 TD) to cap off the season. Three different receivers, WRs Eric Judge (439 rec yards, 2 TDs), Ezell Ruffin (422 rec yards, 2 TD) and Lloyd Mills (310 rec yards, 1 TD), had between 22 and 26 catches with only one other player, FB Adam Roberts (133 rush yards, 2 TD) having multiple scores. The team really gains an edge in this one with its defense that has allowed a mere 20.1 PPG (15th in FBS) to its opponents behind 337.6 YPG of total defense (21st in nation). Much of the Aztecs' success stems from the play of their linebacking corps. LBs Calvin Munson (78 tackles, 4 sacks, 4 INT, 1 TD) and Josh Gavert (78 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) will both attempt to blow up Navy’s triple-option offense.