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Seahawks aim for top seed in NFC Sunday hosting Rams
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/28/2014  at  5:07:00 AM
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ST. LOUIS RAMS (6-9)
at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Seattle -13, Total: 41.0

The Seahawks try to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs when they host the Rams on Sunday.

After holding its three previous opponents to a combined 12 points, the St. Louis defense had no answer for the 6.5-point underdog Giants last week, allowing 514 total yards in a 37-27 home loss. Meanwhile, Seattle won its fifth straight game (SU and ATS) in a dominant 35-6 road victory over Arizona. During the win streak, the Seahawks have won each game by double figures with the average score being 23 to 7. But they were on the losing end of this first meeting back in Week 7, falling 28-26 to the 6.5-point underdog Rams. Prior to that defeat, Seattle had won three straight meetings in this series, but St. Louis covered in two of those losses. The Rams have not won at CenturyLink Field since Jan. 8, 2005, as the Seahawks have covered in seven of their nine home victories since that defeat. There are some important betting trends for this matchup, as St. Louis is 11-3 ATS after a double-digit loss over the past three years, and Seattle is 3-15 ATS off a blowout win by 21+ points over a division rival since 1992. However, the Seahawks are 27-11 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest in that timeframe, and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the past two seasons. While no new injuries have popped up for the Rams, Seattle could be without three players on Sunday with WR Jermaine Kearse (hamstring) doubtful and both C Max Unger (knee) and OT Russell Okung (lung) listed as questionable.

Can the Seahawks wrap up the top seed in the NFC on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Gary is coming off a perfect 5-0 ATS record in Best Bets for Week 16, and is now 71% ATS (20-8-1) in Best Bets since Week 9. StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (32-25-2) in Best Bets during since Week 3, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (31-26-1) during this same timeframe. StatFox Brian is 54% (28-24) in NFL Totals this season.

The Rams went three straight games without allowing a touchdown until surrendering 37 points in a loss to the Giants last week. Despite that big number, this defense allows only 22.3 PPG (T-14th in NFL) thanks to a top-notch red-zone defense (45% efficiency, 4th in league). St. Louis also allows just 108.9 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL), which should help them against a Seahawks team that loves to run the football. When these teams met earlier in the season, Seattle's running backs were held to 65 yards on 22 carries (3.0 YPC), but QB Russell Wilson ran for 106 yards on just seven attempts. The Rams best player in that Week 7 division win was RB Tre Mason (737 rush yards, 4 TD), who rushed 18 times for 85 yards (4.7 YPC) and a touchdown in that game, and he’ll be heavily featured in this one as well. QB Shaun Hill (1,414 pass yards, 8 TD, 5 INT) will be under center when these teams play this time around. He threw for 290 yards with two touchdowns and one interception last week against the Giants and will need to take care of the football against this relentless Seattle secondary. WR Kenny Britt (44 rec, 710 yards, 3 TD) will be targeted often on Sunday, as he is coming off of a game against the Giants where he caught nine passes for 103 yards. At 6-foot-3, 223 pounds, Britt is a big target that has the size to win battles against the big Seattle cornerbacks.

The Seahawks are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and are coming off one of their most dominant offensive performances of the season. QB Russell Wilson (3,236 pass yards, 20 TD, 6 INT; 842 rush yards, 7.5 YPC, 6 TD) threw for 339 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Cardinals last week, while also rushing for 88 yards and a touchdown. In the Oct. 19 between these two teams, Wilson threw for 313 yards (8.7 YPA) with two touchdowns and no picks, and also rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on just seven carries. He’ll need to be on his game again if the Seahawks are going to finish their season strong and give themselves home-field advantage throughout the postseason. WR Doug Baldwin (782 rec yards, 3 TD) has emerged as the go-to receiver in this passing offense, as he compiled 113 receiving yards last week, and also posted a season-high 123 yards in the Week 7 meeting with St. Louis. RB Marshawn Lynch (1,246 rush yards, 12 TD) rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. Lynch was dealing with stomach issues prior to the game, so he should be much healthier heading Sunday's action. He'll have to do much better than his 2.9 yards per carry (18 rush, 53 yards) that he produced in the Oct. 19 loss in St. Louis. This Seahawks defense has allowed seven points or less in four of the past five games with the exception being a 24-14 win over a solid Philadelphia offense. For the season, Seattle leads the NFL in total defense (268.6 YPG) yards per play (4.7), scoring defense (16.5 PPG), and passing defense (184.5 YPG).


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