Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Atlanta -4, Total: 48

The Panthers visit the Falcons on Sunday in a game that will determine which sub-.500 team wins the NFC South.

Carolina hosted the Browns in Week 16 and won 17-13 to for its third straight win (1-2 ATS) and to give itself the opportunity to play for the NFC South crown. Meanwhile, Atlanta went into New Orleans and won 30-14 to set up this winner-take-all matchup. These teams met earlier in the season on Nov. 16, when the Falcons beat the Panthers 19-17 as 2.5-point road favorites. Carolina had won three straight games SU against Atlanta prior to that loss, improving to 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) in this series since the start of 2012. Before losing at home to the Panthers last season, the Falcons had won five straight meetings at Georgia Dome. They have covered in five of their past six home games in this series. Carolina is 31-15 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its previous four games since 1992, and is also facing an Atlanta team that is 7-19 ATS in home games after a win by 14+ points in that span. RB DeAngelo Williams (hand) and G Amini Silatolu (knee) are both questionable for the Panthers in this game, while teammate LB A.J. Klein (undisclosed) is doubtful. The Falcons just sent SS William Moore (shoulder) to IR, and they could also be missing top RB Steven Jackson (quad) and G Jon Asamoah (back) for Sunday's regular-season finale.

Which team will enter the playoffs with seven wins? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Gary is coming off a perfect 5-0 ATS record in Best Bets for Week 16, and is now 71% ATS (20-8-1) in Best Bets since Week 9. StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (32-25-2) in Best Bets during since Week 3, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (31-26-1) during this same timeframe. StatFox Brian is 54% (28-24) in NFL Totals this season.

The Panthers hosted the Browns in a must-win game last week, and QB Cam Newton (3,013 pass yards, 17 TD, 12 INT) came through for his team just two weeks after getting into a car accident that caused two fractures in his back. Newton threw for 201 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he also rushed 12 times for 63 yards and another score. He threw for 292 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in a 19-17 loss to Atlanta on Nov. 16, but he has been much better in recent weeks. In the past two games that Newton has played, he’s thrown for 427 yards with 4 TD and 1 INT. He’s also rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns in those games. RB Jonathan Stewart (760 rush yards, 3 TD) has really run the ball well for Carolina recently, gaining 122 yards on 24 carries against Cleveland, and has now rushed for at least 75 yards in each of the past four games. This Falcons defense has allowed 25.5 PPG (8th in NFL) this season and Carolina should be able to move the ball effectively in this one. Its 10th-ranked defense (343.3 total YPG allowed) comes into this game hot after having given up only 13.3 PPG over the past three weeks.

The Falcons went into New Orleans last week and their defense was dominant, holding the Saints to just 14 points in a game that both teams needed to win. Atlanta’s defense forced four turnovers in the game, including an 88-yard fumble return touchdown by DE Osi Umenyiora (2.5 sacks) on the game’s final play that capped off an amazing performance. The Falcons will need to be on their game again in Week 17, as it will be tough to stop Cam Newton both through the air and on the ground. For the season, Atlanta ranks last in the NFL in both total defense (404.4 total YPG allowed) and passing defense (291.1 passing YPG allowed). QB Matt Ryan (4,434 pass yards, 28 TD, 12 INT) threw for 322 yard with a touchdown and no picks in the win over New Orleans, giving him 15 TD with just 5 INT over the past eight games. He is on a tear for Atlanta and will need to have a big game against the Panthers if his team is going to make it to the postseason. Having a healthier WR Julio Jones (100 rec, 1,535 yards, 6 TD) would certainly help Ryan and the Falcons win this game. Jones came back from a hip injury last week and had seven catches for 107 yards. He is an elite receiver and will be a nightmare for the Panthers to defend if his hip is feeling better this week.