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Rockets try to add to Grizzlies misery Friday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/26/2014  at  5:18:00 AM
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HOUSTON ROCKETS (20-7)

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (21-7)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -2.5, Total: 194

The Grizzlies look to snap a three-game losing skid when they host the slumping Rockets on Friday night.

Houston is coming off a 1-2 homestand (SU and ATS), but was able to steamroll the Blazers on Monday by a score of 110-95. Friday's game will also mark the team debut of recently acquired PF Josh Smith, who was released by Detroit on Monday. After putting together a six-game win streak where it scored at least 103 points every time, Memphis has now dropped three straight contests (SU and ATS) while failing to surpass 97 points in any of the three defeats. These teams have split their past six meetings, with the home team prevailing in each of the two matchups this season. The Rockets are just 1-4 (SU and ATS) in their past five visits to FedEx Forum, falling by 18 points on Jan. 25 and by 26 points last month. But Houston won the meeting earlier this month on Dec. 3 by a 105-96 score. For the season, the Rockets are an outstanding 10-2 SU (7-4-1 ATS) with 104.2 PPG on the road, but the Grizzlies are 12-3 SU (7-8 ATS) with 105.2 PPG at home. In addition to those records, both clubs have important negative coaching trends, such as Houston going 25-40 ATS after playing three straight games as the favorite under Kevin McHale, and Memphis going 11-32 ATS after three straight games of committing 14 or fewer turnovers under David Joerger. Both teams have major injury concerns, as Houston could be without questionable PG Patrick Beverley (illness), while its two star players are both less than 100 percent with C Dwight Howard (knee) and SG James Harden (hamstring) both probable. Memphis PF Zach Randolph, who has missed two straight games with a knee injury, is questionable for Friday, while both SG Tony Allen (eye) and PG Beno Udrih (finger) are probable.

Can the Grizzlies put an end to their three-game losing skid on Friday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. While StatFox Forecaster has a strong 57% ATS record (78-58-1) in featured games this season, the five experts have also done well recently with a collective 58% ATS mark (56-40-2) in NBA Best Bets since Nov. 29. StatFox Gary is 68% ATS (13-6) during this timeframe to give him a 60% ATS (25-17) in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Brian is 67% ATS (14-7) since Nov. 29 to improve to a 56% ATS record (24-19) in NBA Best Bets this season. Also during this surge, StatFox Dave is 58% ATS (11-8-1).

Houston's offense is not close to what it was last season (108.0 PPG, 2nd in NBA), ranking 18th in the league with 100.1 PPG on 42.5% FG (28th in NBA) and 34.2% threes (18th in league). But the defense is much improved from last season (103.7 PPG allowed, 25th in NBA), giving up only 96.3 PPG (3rd in league) on 43.1% FG (also 3rd in NBA) and 30.1% threes (2nd in league). The NBA's top scorer, SG James Harden (27.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 6.2 RPG, 2.0 SPG), has surpassed 40 points in three of his past six games, averaging 32.0 PPG on 43% FG during this stretch. In Monday's win over Portland, he scored 44 points (14-of-26 FG, 4-of-9 threes, 12-of-13 FT) with seven assists and five steals, but he has been ice-cold in two meetings with the Grizzlies this season, scoring 13.5 PPG (37% FG, 2-of-9 threes) with 4.5 RPG, 4.0 APG and 2.5 SPG. C Dwight Howard (19.3 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 2.3 BPG) has also struggled versus Memphis in the past three seasons with a mere 8.9 PPG on 41.5% FG over eight meetings. But since coming back from injury, Howard has five straight double-doubles where he's averaged 20.4 PPG (59% FG), 13.2 RPG and 2.2 BPG. He's also made 20-of-28 FT (71%) in the past four contests, which is well above his career rate of 57% FT. SF Trevor Ariza (13.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG) has been in a shooting slump all season with a career-low 36% FG clip. He has missed more than half of his shots in 19 straight games, with shooting rates of 33% FG and 28% threes during this timeframe. In his two meetings with the Grizzlies, he has made only 10-of-31 shots (32%) to get his 16.0 PPG. It's not clear how many minutes PF Josh Smith (13.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.7 APG) will receive in his Rockets debut, but his size will be a welcomed addition against a strong Grizzlies frontcourt. He has averaged 15.9 PPG (53% FG, 41% threes), 7.0 RPG and 3.0 APG in 20 career games in this matchup.

Memphis has had an average offense this season at 102.0 PPG (13th in NBA) on 46.6% FG (8th in league) and 35.5% threes (15th in NBA), but its defense is still top-notch in allowing 97.0 PPG (5th in league) on 44.4% FG (11th in NBA), but doesn't defend the perimeter shot very well, surrendering 36.7% threes (22nd in league). C Marc Gasol (19.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.6 BPG) has been the team's best player, and has double-doubles in each of the team's three consecutive defeats (20.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG). But he has been very quiet versus Houston this season with only 8.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG in the two meetings. With PF Zach Randolph (16.1 PPG, 11.4 RPG) questionable, Gasol must be more aggressive on both ends of the court, just like he's been during his double-double streak. Randolph hasn't done much versus the Rockets either though, averaging only 11.0 PPG and 6.5 RPG in the two meetings this season, which is well below his career averages of 16.6 PPG and 10.1 RPG in 41 games versus Houston. PG Mike Conley (17.9 PPG, 6.1 APG, 3.0 RPG) has played pretty well offensively during the losing skid with 20.0 PPG on 45% FG, but he's recorded just 11 assists and one steal during the skid. In his two meetings with Houston this season, Conley has 17.0 PPG (58% FG, 10-of-10 FT), 6.0 APG and 2.5 SPG. SG Courtney Lee (11.8 PPG, 49% threes) has provided great long-range shooting this season, and is 8-of-11 FG (3-of-6 threes) versus the Rockets this season. However, Lee has gone cold during his club's three-game losing skid, where he's made only 10-of-28 FG (36%) and 1-of-10 threes.


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