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Cowboys favored big over Lions on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/4/2015  at  5:04:00 AM
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DETROIT LIONS (11-5)
at DALLAS COWBOYS (12-4)

NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 48

The Cowboys look to ride their hot streak into a home playoff meeting with the Lions.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Detroit lost 30-20 in the NFC North division-deciding game at Lambeau Field last week, but the team had won four straight games heading into that one. Dallas, meanwhile, won 44-17 as 6-point favorites in Washington for its fourth consecutive win-and-cover. These two teams most recently met on Oct. 27, 2013, when the Lions won 31-30 as 3-point home favorites. Detroit has won the past two meetings in this series, but the teams have split wins ATS. The Cowboys are a miserable 10-25 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their previous seven games since 1992. They are, however, 24-10 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games in that timeframe. They’re also up against a Lions team that is 1-8 ATS after having won three out of their past four games over the past two years. Detroit is in pretty good shape injury-wise, but G Larry Warford (knee) is doubtful to play. Dallas has a slew of players who are questionable in S C.J. Spillman (groin), DT Nick Hayden (shoulder), LB Rolando McClain (illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (leg), OT Doug Free (ankle), DT Josh Brent (calf) and LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring). The team also just placed two players on IR -- DT Henry Melton (knee) and OT Darrion Weems (shoulder).

Can the Cowboys stay hot and win comfortably on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Gary is a stellar 67% ATS (22-11-1) in Best Bets since Week 9, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (33-28-2) in Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (8-6) in NFL Best Bets over the past four weeks. In last year's postseason, the four experts combined for a 17-6-2 Best Bets record (74%), going 91% (10-1) in Totals and 58% ATS (7-5-2) in Best Bet picks.

The Lions defense was disappointing in a 30-20 loss to the Packers on Sunday that could have given them the win in the division. Detroit’s top-ranked rushing defense allowed the Packers to rush for 152 yards as a team, and overall, it let Green Bay convert 8-of-13 third-down plays. The Lions will need to be a lot better against a Cowboys offense that has been hot as of late. If this defense isn’t playing like it has most of the year, QB Matthew Stafford (4,257 pass yards, 22 TD, 12 INT) will need to have a big game. Stafford threw for 217 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against the Packers, but he was just 20-of-41 in the game. Stafford will need to be way more efficient passing the ball, and it shouldn’t be too difficult with WR Calvin Johnson (71 rec, 1,077 yards, 8 TD) on his side. Johnson caught four passes for 39 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. He is a nightmare to defend on the outside and should be in for a big game against the Cowboys, especially considering how he destroyed Dallas in last year's meeting with 14 catches for 329 yards and three touchdowns. RB Joique Bell (860 rush yards, 7 TD) is going to be a big factor in this game. Bell rushed 13 times for 60 yards against the Packers last week and will need to be more involved against the Cowboys. Bell’s powerful style of running can wear out the Dallas defense, and that is something that the Lions really need to do.

The Cowboys are playing extremely well lately, heading into the postseason on a four-game winning streak. Over the past two weeks, their defense has been absolutely dominant, allowing just 12.0 PPG. But the competition is a lot stiffer with a Lions team that has Calvin Johnson lined up on the outside. It will not be easy, but they did hold an Andrew Luck-led Colts team to just seven points two weeks ago. QB Tony Romo (3,705 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT) has nine touchdowns and just one interception over the past three weeks. His days of costing this team games with turnovers seem to be way in the past, and he is now looking to shed his past troubles in the playoffs where he is 1-3 with 6.2 yards per pass attempt in his career. One guy that can help this franchise win its first postseason game since 2009 is WR Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1,320 yards, 16 TD), who has six touchdowns over the past three weeks. Bryant is nearly impossible to stop once the Cowboys get into the red zone, and Romo will be looking his way often in this one. The Lions defense is the best in the league at stopping the rush, so Romo and Bryant may need to pick up the slack if RB DeMarco Murray (1,845 rush yards, 13 TD) is to struggle. Murray did, however, shred a solid Redskins rushing defense last week with 100 yards and a touchdown. He now has four touchdowns over the past three weeks, despite playing with a fractured hand.


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