Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD

America’s most heated basketball rivalry goes for round two, as host No. 19 North Carolina looks for revenge for an overtime defeat two weeks ago against No. 3 Duke.

No. 3 Duke and No. 19 North Carolina meet for the 239th time (North Carolina leads the series, 133-106) in the highly anticipated rematch of Duke’s 92-90 overtime win in Durham on Feb. 18. Duke trailed by 10 points with less than four minutes left in that win, before rallying furiously. Led by freshman G Tyus Jones (11.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG), who scored the Blue Devils’ last nine points in regulation (all in roughly a minute and a half) to send the game to overtime, Duke rallied again in the extra period. Down 87-84 with three minutes left in overtime, Duke clamped down to not allow another field goal and come back for the win. Since the heartbreaking loss, North Carolina is 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) in its last four games and has won two in a row, defeating both Miami and Georgia Tech on the road. The Tar Heels’ most recent win was a romp (81-49 in Atlanta) as Georgia Tech lost one of its best players early in the game on Tuesday and never recovered. Duke is also coming off a dominating conference win (94-51) at home versus Wake Forest. This win gives the Blue Devils a 10 game win streak, dating back to their huge road win in January versus No. 2 Virginia. The Blue Devils are 6-4 ATS during this streak. Duke is 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) on the road in conference play. North Carolina is 5-3 SU at home in conference play, but also very shaky 1-6-1 ATS over those eight contests. The total has gone Over in four of the last five home games for North Carolina. Historically, Duke holds a slight edge over the past 20 contests (11-9 SU) but North Carolina holds the ATS advantage (12-8). Duke has also been very successful in the Dean Dome holding a 12-8 SU (12-8 ATS) advantage in the past 20 contests in Durham (dating back to 1997). The last time these two faced in Chapel Hill was a 74-66 win for the Tar Heels in late February of last season, as North Carolina was unranked and Duke was No. 5 at the time. Duke is healthy for this contest while Tar Heels F Theo Pinson (3.4 PPG), who’d returned to play limited minutes against Georgia Tech after missing the previous 10 games, is questionable.

Can the Blue Devils beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill Saturday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Feb. 6, combining for a 55% ATS mark (55-45) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Brian is a robust 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets during this timeframe to put him at 57% ATS (47-35-1) this season. StatFox Gary is a strong 56% ATS (30-24) since Dec. 23 to improve to 57% ATS (48-36) for the season, while StatFox Zach is on a 60% ATS (27-18) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (47-36) this season. StatFox Dave is a strong 58% ATS (11-8) since Feb. 6, and StatFox Scott is a profitable 54% ATS (28-24-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

Duke comes into this big rivalry game absolutely rolling. The Blue Devils are fresh off a 43-point win where their best player, C Jahlil Okafor (17.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 66% FG), only recorded six points and four rebounds in 19 minutes. Duke was led by who else, but reserve freshman G Grayson Allen (3.9 PPG) as Allen proceeded to erupt for 19 first-half points versus Wake Forest in eight minutes. Allen would finish with a career-high 27 points. Okafor had a double-double (12 points, 13 rebounds) in his first taste of this rivalry, but he’s still looking for his first made free throw (0-for-6 in Durham). Okafor, already only a mediocre free throw shooter at 53% on the season is really struggling from the stripe lately (7-for-25 in his last four games). It wouldn’t be surprising to see Coach Roy Williams have North Carolina spread fouls out amongst it’s rotation to test Okafor at the line. The Blue Devils as a whole, though have been playing startlingly good offensive basketball for the better part of the conference schedule, shooting 51% from the field (2nd in NCAA) during conference play helping them to an 81.2 PPG average in that span (3rd in NCAA). The hot shooting from the field isn’t just a few good games, as Duke has only been held below 43.5% from the field once in conference play. The aforementioned heady freshman, Jones, will be a marked man for the Tar Heels after his heroics in Durham. Without Jones’ 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists, Duke would’ve surely been leaving Cameron Indoor Stadium with a loss in the first meeting. Fellow freshman, F Justise Winslow (12.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) continues to flourish with steady minutes following the suspension of former teammate Rasheed Sulaimon. Given a bigger role in the offense, Winslow has responded with averages of 15.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG and 55% FG since Jan. 31 (10 games). G Quinn Cook (15.8 PPG, 2.8 3PT on 40% shooting from beyond the arc) has the most experience on the squad facing North Carolina, having scored double-figures in all five contests he’s started against the Tar Heels. Cook scored 17 points in Duke’s loss in Chapel Hill last February and he could be leaned on heavily with such a young team going into what should be a hostile environment.

North Carolina will be playing with a heavy heart, hosting this rivalry for the first time in the Dean E. Smith Center without the building’s namesake around to watch. To win, North Carolina will have to guard the three a lot better than they did in Durham (Duke shot 6-for-10 3PT), and while fouling Duke’s Jahlil Okafor might be a good strategy, they’d be wise not to waste those fouls on valuable big men. F Brice Johnson (12.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 57% FG) is North Carolina’s best offensive weapon inside. He piled up a huge double-double (18 points and 12 rebounds) but did that all in only 24 minutes of time due to foul trouble. Okafor is going to create contact with the way he plays, but in order to maximize the strengths of Johnson and fellow F Kennedy Meeks (12.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 18 points and 7 rebounds versus Duke in the first meeting) expect the Tar Heels to get more minutes out of reserve C Joel James (2.8 PPG). If the Tar Heels can neutralize Okafor again, as they did in the first matchup, while also keeping Johnson and Meeks out of foul trouble, it’d be a big aid to a win. Getting something out of struggling G Marcus Paige (13.2 PPG, 4.4 APG) is also paramount for Coach Williams and his squad. Nobody would’ve expected, when Paige was receiving preseason ACC player-of-the-year honors, that we’d be discussing Paige as, optimistically, the third best guard on the floor in this game. However, with only two double-figure scoring efforts in his past five games (including 2-for-11 at Duke) it’s clear that last-season’s Marcus Paige isn’t walking through that door. G Justin Jackson (9.9 PPG) didn’t do much in their first meeting (1-for-8 FG, 2 points, 17 minutes) but shouldn’t be overlooked as he’s leading the team in scoring (12.8 PPG) over his past four games. Versatile F J.P. Tokoto (8.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.1 APG) had one of his best games of the year in the loss to Duke (15 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists), but missed a wide open jumper with a chance to take the lead late in overtime in Durham.