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Struggling Mavericks face elite Warriors Friday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/6/2015  at  4:17:00 PM
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DALLAS MAVERICKS (40-23)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (47-12)

Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -11.0, Total: 208.0

The Warriors look to win their second straight game when they host a struggling Mavericks team Friday.

The Mavericks went into Portland on Thursday and played a pitiful game, losing 94-75 as 3-point road underdogs. Dallas shot 37.5% from the field and the team will really need to turn things around offensively soon. The Mavs have scored 100+ points in just two of their past 10 games. The Warriors, meanwhile, beat the Bucks 102-93 as 13.5-point home favorites on Wednesday. Golden State has now won three of its past four games SU, but the team has failed to cover in three of those contests. The Warriors have uncharacteristically allowed 101.3 PPG over the past three contests and will need to improve their defense moving forward. The last time these two teams met was Feb. 4, when the Warriors beat the Mavericks 128-114 as 8-point home favorites. The Warriors also beat the Mavericks 105-98 as 1-point road underdogs in Dallas on Dec. 13, 2014. Dallas has lost four straight games SU and ATS against Golden State. The Warriors have also won six of their past seven games against the Mavericks at Oracle Arena SU, but they’ve covered in just four of those wins. Over the past two seasons, Dallas is 27-10 ATS in road games after playing a road game in their previous contest. Golden State, however, is 11-2 ATS after two straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season. SF Chandler Parsons (Ankle) is expected to miss this one for Dallas and PG Devin Harris (Thumb) is questionable. SG Leandro Barbosa (Respiratory) is questionable for the Warriors.

Can the Warriors earn a win at home versus a struggling Mavericks team on Friday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (162-133-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 61% ATS (80-52) record since Feb. 1, led by StatFox Brian who has a stellar 64% ATS (16-9) mark in Best Bets during this timeframe, and is now 57% ATS (54-40) in season Best Bets. StatFox Scott is also sizzling with a 62% ATS record (33-20) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 56% ATS (52-41) for the season. StatFox Gary is also hot with a 61% ATS (28-18) mark in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and is 57% ATS (53-40) this season. StatFox Zach is a robust 63% ATS (29-17) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is a red-hot 65% ATS (17-9) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 28.

The Mavericks went into Portland and played a lousy game offensively, putting up 75 points and getting nothing from their best players. PF Dirk Nowitzki (17.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and SG Monta Ellis (19.2 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.9 SPG) combined to score just 22 points (10-for-33 FG, 0-for-5 3PT combined) in the loss. Those two will need to be more effective on Friday. Nowitzki has played well against the Warriors this season, scoring 19.0 PPG and grabbing 5.5 RPG in two meetings with them. His height gives Draymond Green a ton of issues defensively. Ellis, however, is averaging 19.0 PPG in the two meetings but has not shot the ball well (37% FG in those games). He must take better shots this time around. C Tyson Chandler (10.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG) had four points, 14 rebounds and a block in 32 minutes against the Blazers last game. Chandler has played very well against the Warriors this season, averaging 16.0 PPG (73% FG) and 14.5 RPG in two games against Golden State. His ability to protect the rim will be needed against a very good Warriors offense. PG Rajon Rondo (8.9 PPG, 8.2 APG, 5.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG) will also need to be at his very best in this one. Rondo has played better recently, averaging 14.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 5.5 APG over his past two games. He has not yet faced the Warriors this season and will need to play well on the defensive end. If he does not keep Stephen Curry in line then the Mavericks have no chance of winning this game on the road. SF Richard Jefferson (5.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG) will likely play extended minutes in this game due to SF Chandler Parsons (15.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG) being injured. Jefferson has played well in spot duty recently, averaging 10.2 PPG and 4.4 RPG over the past five contests. He’ll be counted on to knock down some shots on Friday.

The Warriors have been outstanding on both ends of the floor this season, allowing 99.9 PPG (18th in NBA) but scoring an incredible 110.0 PPG (1st in NBA). PG Stephen Curry (23.8 PPG, 7.8 APG, 4.5 RPG, 2.1 SPG) has been on fire lately, averaging 24.4 PPG (48% FG, 41% 3PT) and 6.8 APG in 32.6 MPG over the past five contests. He’s shooting the ball extremely well and has the ability to get wherever he wants on the floor. SG Klay Thompson (21.8 PPG, 3.4, 3.0 APG, 1.2 SPG) will need to try and feed off of the way Curry is playing, but it hasn’t been the case recently. He’s averaging just 12.0 PPG over the past two games and hasn’t shot the ball well (8-for-33 FG). Thompson will need to use his size to get good positioning against a much smaller Monta Ellis. He also has to find his stroke from the outside, as he is one of the league’s best shooters from three (43% 3PT). PF Draymond Green (11.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.4 BPG) caught fire against the Bucks on Wednesday, pouring in 23 points to go along with 12 rebounds, five assists, three blocks and three steals in 40 minutes. Green had been struggling with his shot and that performance should really give him some confidence heading into this matchup with Dirk Nowitzki. He has battled in two games against the Mavericks this year, averaging 11.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.5 APG and 2.5 BPG in those contests. He must, however, play better defense on Nowitzki this time around. C Andrew Bogut (6.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) will have to keep up with Tyson Chandler in this game. Bogut is an excellent defender and rebounder, but he’ll be going up against a much more active Chandler in this one. He’ll need to really fight while he’s on the floor on Friday.


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