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Red-hot Cardinals host Cubs Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 6/26/2015  at  10:47:00 AM
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CHICAGO CUBS (39-32)

at ST LOUIS CARDINALS (48-24)

First pitch: Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -120, Chicago +110, Total: 7

The Chicago Cubs hope to make up some ground on the NL Central leading St. Louis Cardinals when they start a weekend series on Friday night.

It has been a great breakout season for the young Cubbies and they have most of their top prospects making it to the big league club at the same time. They come into this one with wins in four of their last six games, but were unable to come away victorious in either of the past two against the Dodgers. They split the four-game set when L.A. came to Chicago early on in the week and were unable to get the series win after a 4-0 loss on Thursday, getting eight hits in the defeat but going a mere 1-for-6 with RISP. With three hits, 1B Anthony Rizzo (.312) has continued to be one of the more dominant hitters in the league and is 13-for-35 (.371) with four doubles, four homers and six RBI in his last nine contests. The Cardinals just keep playing at a level many teams cannot achieve and they currently hold a 7.5-game lead in the NL Central while coming into this series with a record of 10-3 since June 10th. To begin the week they went to Miami and put a hurting on the Marlins, sweeping them in three contests while outscoring them 15-5. They completed the sweep with a 5-1 victory on Thursday with 10 hits; going 4-for-9 with RISP in the process. OF Jayson Heyward (.278) is riding an eight-game hitting streak and is 14-for-32 (.438) with four home runs and nine RBI over the stretch. Taking the mound for the visitors will be RHP Jake Arrieta (7-5, 3.07 ERA) as he takes on RHP John Lackey (6-4, 3.41 ERA) of the host St. Louis group. The Cubs have been decent on the road, going 19-17 when away from home as the Cardinals have amassed a tremendous 26-7 record at Busch Stadium. These two teams have had tons of experience against each other and since the start of the 2013 campaign, St. Louis is 26-18 overall in the matchup while winning 16-of-24 games at home in that time. So far in 2015, the Cardinals have won 4-of-6 games and have outscored Chicago 30-22. Trends show that Arrieta’s teams are a perfect 7-0 in road games after a game where he did not walk a batter in his career while St. Louis is 40-15 (.727) against right-handed starters this season. Both OF Dexter Fowler (Ankle) and SS Starlin Castro (Personal) are questionable for the Cubs as the Cardinals will be without the power of 1B Matt Adams (Quad) and OF Matt Holliday (Quad) who are on the DL.

Arrieta did not have the best of seasons when with the Orioles, but put on a show with his new team when he had his first full season with the Cubs in 2014, posting an impressive 2.53 ERA over 25 starts with 9.6 K/9. He has continued with that success in 2015 with more than a strikeout per inning (9.5 K/9) and has improved on his already solid control with a miniscule 21 walks in his 91 innings (2.1 BB/9). His great pitching has led to Chicago getting wins in three of his last four outings and he is coming off an amazing start (9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 7 K) in a win over the Twins last week. In his time against the Cardinals, Arrieta has gone 3-1 (4-3 team record) with a 1.51 ERA (1.06 WHIP) and is 1-1 against them this season. OF Jayson Heyward has been on a recent tear and could continue his streak as he is 5-for-12 with a double against the righty in his career. On the other side of things, OF Jon Jay (1-for-15, 5 K) and 2B Kolten Wong (3-for-15, 5 K) have really struggled in the matchup. The Cubs bullpen has gone 18-12 with a 3.00 ERA (1.22 WHIP) and are 17-for-26 (65%) in save chances. Hector Rondon (2.35 ERA, 12 saves) has three blown saves this year and has not allowed an earned run since May 22nd (11.2 IP).

Lackey has had a long and successful career, posting 158 career wins and despite being 36-years-old remains effective for his third MLB team. He’s seen his strikeouts drop to 6.6 K/9 in 2015, but continued to show some impressive control with a meager 2.1 BB/9 over his 89.2 innings pitched. His biggest asset this year has been the ability to keep the ball in the yard with a mark of 0.70 HR/9 which is his best number since the 2006 campaign. His team has won in four of his last five starts as he has pitched at least seven innings with three runs or fewer in each of the victories. In his four career starts against Chicago, Lackey is 3-1 (4-1 team record) with a 2.28 ERA (1.19 WHIP) and was huge (7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 10 K) when he saw them in May. OF Chris Coghlan (7-for-12, 1 double) has dominated Lackey in his career while 3B Kris Bryant (0-for-3, 3 K), 1B Anthony Rizzo (0-for-6, 2 K) and OF Junior Lake (0-for-3, 2 K) have really had issues against the veteran. The relievers for the Cardinals are some of the best and are 13-6 with a 2.10 ERA (1.22 WHIP) with 29-of-34 (85%) save chances being successful. Trevor Rosenthal (0.56 ERA, 22 saves) has been nearly perfect this year with one blown save and has not allowed a run since May 3rd (19.2 IP) with an 18:4 K/BB in that time.


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