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Boise State, Utah State meet Friday evening
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/15/2015  at  4:28:00 PM
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BOISE STATE BRONCOS (5-1)
at UTAH STATE AGGIES (3-2)

Maverik Stadium - Logan, UT
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: BYU -6.5, Total: 65.5

Conference rivals trying to stay unbeaten in Mountain West play will square off Friday night when No. 21 Boise State visits Utah State.

Both schools are 2-0 in the MWC Mountain Division and both are riding high into this showdown. The Broncos have won four straight games (SU ATS) by at least 31 points each while the Aggies have scored 89 points during two straight victories (SU and ATS). Boise State has thoroughly dominated Utah State since 1998 by winning all 12 meetings (11 by double-digits) and going 10-1-1 ATS. These schools are playing for the third straight season after the Broncos rolled to a 50-19 home win last year, but the last matchup in Logan in 2013 was relatively close with the Aggies falling 34-23. Most of the betting trends expect Boise State to extend its win streak in this series, as the school is 8-0 ATS on the road where the total is between 49.5 and 52 since 1992 and underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 straight conference wins against an opponent off a double-digit road win are just 11-42 ATS (21%) in the past 10 seasons. But Utah State is 12-3 ATS off a game going Over the total since 2013, and 13-5 ATS after committing one turnover or less under head coach Matt Wells. Neither team will be playing its starting quarterback with Broncos QB Ryan Finley (ankle) and Aggies QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) both out for a few more weeks. Boise State will also be missing S Dylan Summer-Gardner (ankle), while DB Donte Deayon and OL Rees Odhiambo are both questionable with undisclosed injuries.

Can Utah State finally beat Boise State on Friday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Boise State has scored at least 41 points in all four of its consecutive wins, outscoring opponents by an astronomical 204 to 24 margin during the surge. The offense has rolled up 40.7 PPG on 482 total YPG for the season and 50.7 PPG on 533 total YPG in the past three games. While the air attack has been ultra-successful with 289 YPG on 68% completions and 8.8 YPA, the ground game has a pedestrian 194 YPG on 4.2 YPC. Freshman QB Brett Rypien has been tremendous since replacing injured QB Ryan Finley at the start of this win streak. Rypien has completed 70% of his throws for 1,057 yards (10.2 YPA), 7 TD and 1 INT while taking only four sacks in these four games. He and junior WR Thomas Sperbeck have really been in sync during the four straight victories, as Sperbeck has caught 22 passes for 485 yards and five touchdowns. Sperbeck also had a touchdown as part of his 59 receiving yards in last year's win over Utah State. The Broncos have also gotten great production from sophomore RB Jeremy McNichols who has rushed for more than 100 yards for two straight games, and has scored at least 2 TD in five of six contests, totaling 12 rushing touchdowns for the year. The Boise State defense has also been tremendous this season, especially against the run where it allows a mere 61 YPG on 2.0 YPC. But the secondary has also come through by holding opposing quarterbacks to a 48% completion rate and 199 passing YPG on a mere 5.3 YPA. The Broncos have also helped themselves out by forcing 16 turnovers this season, including 12 in the past three games. But the Aggies don't easily give up the football with just one turnover during the two-game win streak.

Utah State's ground game stalled early in the season with only 113 rushing YPG in the first three games, but has racked up 250 rushing YPG in the past two contests. Junior RB Devante Mays is coming off nine carries for 92 yards and 3 TD last week, which followed a 10-carry, 60-yard effort the prior week. He is now averaging 7.4 YPC for the season. Sophomore QB Kent Myers has played very well in two games since replacing injured QB Chuckie Keeton, throwing zero interceptions. After producing 328 total yards and 2 TD versus Colorado State, he completed 72% of his throws (18-of-25) for 260 yards and 1 TD in last week's 56-14 rout at Fresno State. Senior WR Hunter Sharp had 99 of those yards on six catches, and the week before he caught four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. The Aggies defense has limited opponents to 19.2 PPG on 297 total YPG, and those numbers have been even better at home (13.5 PPG, 262 total YPG) where they allow only 3.7 yards per play. Like Boise State, the USU run defense has been stellar (102 YPG on 2.8 YPC), but the secondary has allowed 195 passing YPG on 6.4 YPC. The Aggies have done a great job at forcing turnovers recently as well with nine takeaways in the past three games. But the Broncos' ball security has been outstanding during their four-game win streak with only one giveaway to the opponent during that stretch.


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