Since falling in the season opener at Temple, the Nittany Lions (3-3 ATS) have ripped off five straight wins with only one of those occurring by less than 13 points (20-14 win vs. Army on Oct. 3). Last week they crushed 4-point underdog Indiana by a 29-7 score, which came only one week after the Buckeyes (1-5 ATS) nearly lost to the Hoosiers (34-27). But despite five straight ATS defeats, OSU has had only one other game that has been closer than 18 points (20-13 vs. Northern Illinois), and is coming off a 49-28 thrashing of Maryland last week. Although Penn State has had little success in Columbus since 1992 (2-9 SU and ATS), the team nearly pulled off the upset last year at home when it fell 31-24 in double overtime to the 14-point favorites. Despite the close score, Ohio State held the ball for 34:24 and enjoyed a significant 219 to 16 rushing advantage. The Nittany Lions have played some low-scoring games this year (5-1 Under), but are 6-0 ATS since 2013 when coming off 2+ straight Under results. However, the Buckeyes are 57-34 ATS versus good teams (10+ PPG) since 1992, and Urban Meyer is 27-12 ATS when facing top-level teams (75%+ win pct.) in his coaching career. Penn State has a slew of injuries for Saturday with seven players listed as questionable -- RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), RB Akeel Lynch (knee), TE Adam Breneman (undisclosed), C Angelo Mangiro (leg), DB Marcus Allen (arms), DB Evan Schwan (undisclosed) and K Chris Gulla (undisclosed). Ohio State has lost three players for the season already this month -- WR Corey Smith (leg), LB Nick Conner (knee) and DB Cam Burrows (foot) -- and has two other players doubtful for Saturday with knee injuries in WR Parris Campbell and S Erick Smith.
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Penn State has not possessed an explosive offense this season with a pedestrian 25.2 PPG and 344 total YPG. The ground game has been respectable with 157 YPG on 4.5 YPC, but the air attack has gained only 187 YPG on 6.8 YPA. Senior QB Christian Hackenberg has completed only 53% of his passes this year for 1,086 yards (6.6 YPA), 7 TD and 2 INT. He was also erratic at home versus Ohio State last season when he completed just 31-of-49 throws for 224 yards (4.6 YPA), 1 TD and 2 INT. He could have to drop back another 40+ times with his top two running backs both questionable with injuries -- freshman RB Saquon Barkley (373 rush yds, 8.9 YPC, 3 TD) and junior RB Akeel Lynch (262 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 2 TD). Lynch had a dreadful game against the Buckeyes last year with 13 carries for 38 yards (2.9 YPC), but Ohio State's run defense is not as strong as it usually is. The player who kept the Nittany Lions in that 2014 meeting for all of regulation and two overtimes was WR DaeSean Hamilton who caught 14 passes for 125 yards. Hamilton (207 rec yds, 2 TD) is currently second on Penn State in receiving behind WR Chris Godwin (390 rec yds, 1 TD) who caught only three passes for 16 yards in last year's loss to OSU. The Penn State defense has played excellent football for the majority of the year in limiting opponents to 14.3 PPG on 278 total YPG. Teams have run for only 119 YPG on 3.1 YPC while opposing quarterbacks have a subpar 159 passing YPG on 5.9 YPA. Penn State has also forced an average of two turnovers per game, including 10 takeaways in the past four games. That could be problematic for a Buckeyes offense with 13 giveaways already this year.
Ohio State continues to roll through opposing defenses with 36.8 PPG and 460 total YPG. This production has been achieved with a perfect balance of 230 rushing YPG (5.8 YPC) and 230 passing YPG (7.9 YPA). Junior QB Cardale Jones (63% completions, 1,158 pass yds, 8.6 YPA, 7 TD, 5 INT) got off to a rough start to the 2015 season with only 334 passing yards, 2 TD and 3 INT in the first three games combined, but he has thrown for at least 245 yards in each of the past three contests with 5 TD and 2 INT. A big reason for his resurgence is junior WR Michael Thomas (399 rec yds, 4 TD) who has 241 receiving yards and 2 TD over the past three games, including 107 yards on seven catches last week. But the most productive offensive player for Ohio State is star RB Ezekiel Elliott (835 rush yds, 6.9 YPC, 10 TD) who has topped 100 rushing yards in all six games this season. He has completely dominated two Big Ten opponents (Indiana and Maryland) with 380 rushing yards and 5 TD plus eight receptions for 59 yards. In last year's trip to Happy Valley, Elliott ran for 109 yards on 26 carries (4.2 YPC) and a 10-yard touchdown to open the scoring. The Buckeyes defense has been gashed so far in Big Ten play in surrendering 27.5 PPG and 394 total YPG, which are numbers well above strong season defensive averages of 17.3 PPG and 300 total YPG. Although OSU is still struggling at times to stop the run (153 YPG on 3.5 YPC), it has been mostly excellent through the air by holding opposing quarterbacks to 147 YPG on a measly 46% completion rate and 5.0 YPA. The Buckeyes defense has been disruptive enough to force 11 turnovers this year, but Penn State has only four giveaways combined over six games.
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