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Struggling Colts visit undefeated Panthers Monday
By: Phil Burton - StatFox
Published: 11/2/2015  at  12:57:00 PM
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-4)
at CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-0)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Carolina -7, Total: 46

The Colts hope to turn their fortunes around on Monday night against their undefeated hosts, the red-hot Panthers.

Indianapolis (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) has struggled through the first seven weeks of the season, subverting lofty preseason expectations for the team. Meanwhile, Carolina (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS), has defied prognostication en route to amassing a perfect record through Week 7. The Panthers have bested the Colts 4-1 all-time, including a 27-19 win in their most recent matchup in November 2011. Indianapolis is 39-23 ATS when playing a top-level team (win pct. of at least 75%), and underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a poor first-half defense (allowing 14+ PPG) are 68-31 ATS since 1983 when coming off a loss of six or fewer points. Carolina is the beneficiary of several strong trends in its favor. The team is 60-25 ATS when playing bad defensive teams (giving up 24+ PPG) since joining the league in 1995, and head coach Ron Rivera is 18-8 ATS against clubs with losing records in his tenure with the Panthers. The Colts have lost first-round draft pick WR Phillip Dorsett for 4-to-6 weeks to an ankle injury suffered in last week’s game against the Saints, and RB Josh Robinson (undisclosed), S Mike Adams (hamstring), and S Clayton Geathers (knee) are all listed as questionable. The Panthers have placed TE Richie Brockel on the IR for the remainder of the season, and DE Mario Addison (shoulder), LB Shaq Thompson (knee), and DT Dwan Edwards (ankle) are all questionable to play Monday night.

Can the Panthers extend their win streak with a sizable victory? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the experts have a collective 58% ATS record (60-43-2) in NFL Best Bets, including a 67% ATS success rate (20-10-1) in the past two weeks. StatFox Dave is leading the charge at 68% ATS (19-9) this season, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (15-12-1) and StatFox Gary and Scott are both tied at 54% ATS (13-11). StatFox Scott continues to profit in NFL Totals this season at 54% (13-11).

Indianapolis has struggled on both sides of the ball this season, though even with a losing record, it has retained first place in the dismal AFC South. The team has generated just 21.0 PPG (23rd out of 32) and 351 total YPG (17th out of 32), while coughing up 15 turnovers (28th out of 32). QB Andrew Luck has thrown the second-highest number of interceptions in the league (9), despite missing two games with a shoulder injury. The Colts have only one win with Luck under center this season, squeaking by the Titans 35-33. The team’s rushing woes in recent years have continued this season. The running corps, led by veteran RB Frank Gore, has rushed for 655 yards (26th out of 32) on 153 attempts (30th out of 32) while finding the end zone only three times (25th out of 32). The loss of rookie WR Phillip Dorsett is yet another blow an offense that has yet to find their footing. The Colts’ defense allows opponents to produce 24.9 PPG (20th out of 32) and a league-worst 409 YPG, while generating just seven turnovers (26th out of 32). It hasn't helped that the squad has been stranded on the field for an average of 33:10 per game or that the unit has generated only seven turnovers in seven games.

The situation couldn’t be more different for Carolina, the leader of the NFC South. In its six victories, the team has hung 27.0 PPG (6th out of 32) and 344 total YPG (22nd out of 32) on its opponents, leading the league in rushing attempts (197) and yards (868), while punching in seven touchdowns on the ground (5th out of 32). QB Cam Newton is the team’s second leading rusher behind RB Jonathan Stewart, and has been a TD machine – throwing for nine, and running for four. TE Greg Olsen remains Newton’s go-to option (27 receptions, 439 yards, 3 TDs) in the absence of injured WR Kelvin Benjamin, leading an otherwise spotty receiving corps of veterans (WRs Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery) and young talent (WRs Devin Funchess and Corey Brown). Newton is 1-0 in his career against the Colts, with the win coming in the Manning-and-Luck-less 2011 season. In that game Newton threw for 208 passing yards and zero touchdowns. The Panthers’ defense has been sturdy, giving up just 18.3 PPG (6th out of 32) and 340 total YPG (10th out of 32). The team’s secondary has been especially resolute, allowing a league-best five touchdowns and just 235.3 passing YPG.


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