Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New York -2.5, Total: 43

In-state and division rivals open Week 10 of the NFL season on Thursday night when the Bills visit the Jets.

Buffalo (4-4 ATS) has had a roller coaster season, but after losing two in a row, the club is currently on a high after crushing the Dolphins 33-17 at home last week with 420 yards of offense. New York (4-3-1 ATS) is also coming off a win (28-23 vs. Jacksonville) that followed two straight defeats. The Bills have won big three straight times in this matchup with scores of 37-14, 43-23 and 38-3, and head coach Rex Ryan hopes that streak continues against his former team. While these clubs are an even 23-23 SU since 1992, the Jets hold a slight 13-10 advantage (SU and ATS) at home during this time period. Both teams have positive trends, as Buffalo falls under the category of NFL road underdogs going 65-32 ATS (67%) in the past 10 seasons after two straight games of forcing one or less turnover against an opponent coming off a game with at least a +2 turnover margin. But New York bettors can point to NFL home teams going 46-21 ATS (69%) since 1983 in a game involving two good offenses (335 to 370 YPG) after allowing 400+ total yards in the previous game. The Bills have been a battered mess all season, but finally have an intact roster with the exception of WR Percy Harvin (hip, IR) and a couple of questionable players in RB LeSean McCoy (shoulder) and OT Cyrus Kouandjio (knee). For the Jets, K Nick Folk (quad) is out indefinitely and will likely be replaced by former Texans K Randy Bullock, while five others are listed as questionable -- CB Antonio Cromartie (thigh), CB Dee Milliner (wrist), S Calvin Pryor (ankle), RB Bilal Powell (concussion) and G Willie Colon (knee).

Which New York team will emerge victorious on Thursday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the four experts have a strong 55% ATS collective record (71-59-3) in NFL Best Bets. StatFox Gary is leading the way at 60% ATS (18-12-1) this season, while StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (19-15-1). In terms of NFL Totals, Gary (55%, 12-10) remains profitable this season.

The Bills are averaging a strong 26.1 PPG on 351 total YPG, and those numbers balloon to 35.3 PPG and 399 total YPG in three division matchups. In the six games with QB Tyrod Taylor under center, the team is 4-2 (SU and ATS) with 26.2 PPG as Taylor has completed 72% of his throws for 213 YPG, 10 TD and only 4 INT. Oft-injured WR Sammy Watkins is still bothered by an injured ankle, but he is coming off a monster game versus Miami when he caught all eight of his targets for 168 yards and a touchdown. The ground game was nearly unstoppable against the Dolphins with 266 yards on 36 carries (7.4 YPC), but the Jets are much tougher to create holes against, and Buffalo has gained a mere 251 yards on 2.5 YPC in the past three meetings in this series. If top RB LeSean McCoy (416 rush yds, 4.4 YPC, 2 TD) can't play on Thursday, it will be up to backup RB Karlos Williams (336 rush yds, 6.6 YPC, 5 TD) to keep cranking out the yards. Williams needed only nine carries against Miami to gain 110 yards (12.2 YPC) and two touchdowns. Buffalo's defense had allowed 34 points in each of two straight defeats to Cincinnati and Jacksonville before limiting the Dolphins to 17 last week. On the season, the team is allowing 23.7 PPG and 353 total YPG, with a good chunk of that yardage coming through the air (260 YPG, 6.4 YPA). The Bills are allowing only 94 YPG on 3.9 YPC on the ground and have not given up more than 120 rushing yards all season. This defense has not been very opportunistic recently though, with only four takeaways in the past five games combined. That's not good, especially considering its Thursday opponent has turned the ball over just twice in the past three contests combined.

The Jets are a versatile offense with 25.0 PPG overall and 27.5 PPG at home. They average 366 total YPG broken down between 251 passing YPG (6.9 YPA) and 115 rushing YPG (3.8 YPC). But the team has been much more willing to air out the football in the past three weeks (279 YPG) compared to its meager 64 rushing YPG on 2.5 YPC in this same three-game timeframe. Last week the club ran for 29 yards on 28 carries with top RB Chris Ivory (544 rush yds, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD) finishing with 23 totes for 26 yards (1.1 YPC) and two touchdowns. He has been slowed recently by a hamstring injury, but is still expected to play on Thursday. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,790 pass yds, 7.2 YPA, 13 TD, 7 INT) will face his former team for just the second time in his career on Thursday, and will do so riding a streak of 215+ passing yards in six straight full games. He hasn't thrown a pick since Oct. 18, connecting on 60% of his throws for 613 yards (7.9 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT over the past three games, one of which he was injured in Oakland. WR Eric Decker was the top receiver last week with 79 yards on six catches and a touchdown. Although he caught 11 passes against the Bills last season, he gained only 103 yards on those grabs (9.4 avg). Defensively, New York is allowing only 20.2 PPG on 323 YPG, but those numbers have gone way up in the past three weeks to 29.0 PPG on 413 YPG. The Jets remain a top-notch unit in stopping the run (81 YPG on 3.7 YPC), but injuries to key defensive backs have weakened this secondary. For the season, they allow 243 passing YPG on 6.2 YPA. But despite the injuries, this unit still forced four Jacksonville turnovers last week, marking the fifth multi-takeaway game this season.