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Bowling Green faces Western Michigan Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/11/2015  at  12:05:00 PM
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BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (7-2)
at WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS (6-3)

Waldo Stadium - Kalamazoo, MI
Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Bowling Green -3, Total: 74

The two remaining unbeaten MAC teams will collide on Wednesday night when Bowling Green visits Western Michigan.

Both the Falcons and Broncos are a perfect 5-0 SU in conference play and haven't lost a game since September. Bowling Green (7-2 ATS) has won six in a row including four straight ATS victories by an eye-popping average margin of 39.8 PPG, while Western Michigan (6-3 ATS) has averaged a robust 47.4 PPG during five consecutive victories. While both schools can certainly put up points, last year's meeting was more about the defenses standing tall in a 26-14 Broncos road win. The Falcons haven't enjoyed victory in this series since 2004, losing four straight meetings by lopsided scores of 45-14, 41-7, 45-21 and 26-14. There are plenty of reasons for bettors to like either team on Wednesday, as Bowling Green is 11-0 ATS in the past three seasons after a win by 21+ points, including 7-0 ATS when that win came in conference play. But Western Michigan is 11-2 SU following a SU win in the past two years and 10-1 ATS under head coach P.J. Fleck after gaining 475+ total yards in its previous game. Despite this game taking place early in the week, there are no significant injuries for either school.

Which team will stay unbeaten in MAC play on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts were a combined 54% ATS in Best Bets last week (14-12-1) led by StatFox Dave's impressive 80% clip (4-1).

Bowling Green has scored a whopping 45.9 PPG on 594 total YPG this season, which includes 56.3 PPG in the past three contests. While the Falcons are certainly capable of rushing the football with 163 YPG on 4.2 YPC, they are unbelievable in moving the ball through the air with a ridiculous 430 YPG on 9.7 YPA. Senior QB Matt Johnson is completing 71% of his throws this year for 3,686 yards (2nd in nation), 33 touchdowns (T-2nd in FBS) and only 3 INT. In the past four weeks, Johnson has thrown for 1,602 yards (401 YPG), 19 TD and 1 INT. Four players already have surpassed 500 receiving yards with at least four touchdowns, but this group is clearly led by dynamic sophomore WR Roger Lewis. Not only does he rank second in the nation with 1,224 yards, but he also has 12 touchdowns (T-4th in FBS) including a 94-yarder against Memphis. When Bowling Green does choose to run the football, both RBs Travis Greene (696 rush yds, 5.6 YPC, 7 TD) and Fred Coppet (526 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 2 TD) have proven to be capable backs. The senior Greene needed only 13 carries to gain 106 yards (8.2 YPC) and 3 TD last week, while the 5-foot-9 junior Coppet ran for 73 yards on just 12 totes (6.1 YPC) in the win versus Ohio. This duo was pretty quiet in the loss to WMU last year though, combining for just 72 yards on 23 carries (3.1 YPC). The offense has needed to score in bunches this year because the Bowling Green defense has been lackluster in allowing 28.0 PPG on 434 total YPG. The team has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60% of their passes for 269 YPG on 6.9 YPA, and the unit has surrendered 166 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. Turnovers have been crucial though, as the Falcons have produced multiple takeaways in four straight contests. However, the Broncos have committed only one turnover in their past four games combined and haven't had multiple giveaways in six consecutive games.

Western Michigan is averaging 38.0 PPG and 486 total YPG on offense, and has bumped those numbers up to 49.0 PPG and 576 YPG in the past three games. The Broncos do a great job controlling the football with a 33:55 average time of possession, and they are also very balanced on offense with 278 passing YPG (9.0 YPA) and 208 rushing YPG (5.3 YPC). Junior QB Zach Terrell has completed 70% of his throws this year for 2,369 yards, 23 TD and only 6 INT. He hasn't thrown a pick since September, racking up 13 TD and zero interceptions over his past five games, which have all been against MAC foes. Terrell was very efficient in the win at Bowling Green last season with 166 yards on 15-of-24 passes (6.9 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT, and he also ran for 39 yards on nine carries. WR Corey Davis had a big day against the Falcons with seven catches for 67 yards and a touchdown, and he is enjoying a fine 2015 season with 832 receiving yards and 8 TD. But WMU's top pass catcher is junior WR Daniel Braverman who has 85 receptions for 999 yards and 11 touchdowns, having caught at least five passes in all nine games this season. On the ground, sophomore RB Jarvion Franklin (660 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 5 TD) hasn't come close to duplicating his freshman campaign of 1,551 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns, failing to reach 50 yards in any of the past three games. But Franklin ran all over Bowling Green last season for 149 yards on 37 carries (4.0 YPC) and a touchdown. Defensively, the Broncos are allowing 26.6 PPG on 389 total YPG this year, but those numbers have improved greatly in the past three games to 16.0 PPG on 306 total YPG. Neither the run-stop unit (168 rushing YPG, 5.1 YPC) nor the secondary (221 receiving YPG, 7.4 YPA) have been particularly effective. Western Michigan can't count on adding much to its tally of seven takeaways in the past three weeks because the Falcons have turned the ball over only once in the past five contests, including three straight turnover-free games.


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