Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID
Kickoff: Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Boise State -12, Total: 55

Air Force swoops into the Gem State on Friday night to take on struggling Boise State.

The Falcons (7-3 SU and ATS) registered a school record 12th straight home win last weekend in dispatching Utah State 35-28. The team is riding a four-game winning streak coming into Friday’s matchup, trailing only their opponent for best record in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos (7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS) will try to shake off an uncharacteristic 31-24 loss at home to New Mexico, the team’s first on the blue turf since 2012. Despite the recent loss and a record comparable to its opponent, Boise State is still favored by a sizeable margin on Friday. In the short history of this Mountain West rivalry, the Broncos have a 2-1 SU advantage, though Air Force has won 3-0 ATS. The Falcons got their sole SU win last season in a 28-14 upset that saw the Broncos cough up seven turnovers. Air Force doesn’t have many trends in its favor this week, but the team is 26-11 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of its previous six games since 1992, and underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points who are good teams (60% to 80% win pct.) are 85-42 ATS since 1992 after beating the spread by a total of 21+ points in their previous three games and facing a winning team. Bettors looking to wager on Boise State have a variety of trends to lean on, as the team is 32-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its previous three games since 1992, and 80-48 ATS after playing a conference opponent in the same time period. The Falcons were able to walk away from last week’s game without any new injuries, though they lost their starting QB Nate Romine (knee) for the season in September, and are without LB Patrick Healy (undisclosed), LB Dexter Walker (undisclosed), DL David Harris (undisclosed), and CB Kalon Baker (hamstring) indefinitely. Boise State also lost its starting QB Ryan Finley (ankle) to injury early in the season, and learned this week that WRs Akilian Butler (undisclosed) and Shane Williams-Rhodes (undisclosed) will be out indefinitely with their injuries.

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Air Force’s offense has been better than most this season, averaging 34.1 PPG (34th of 128 FBS teams), though it has been middle of the pack on the road (28.2 PPG). After the season-ending injury to QB Nate Romine, senior QB Karson Roberts has filled in ably for Air Force, registering one of the best games of his career last week with 11-of-17 completions for 271 yards and a touchdown, while contributing 53 yards and a score on the ground. Roberts routinely tallies more rushing attempts than passing attempts in the Falcons’ run-first offense, which averages just 121.7 YPG through the air, the fourth-lowest of the FBS teams. On the flip side, the team averages a whopping 333.2 rushing YPG, the third-highest among teams in the nation. RB Jacobi Owens leads Air Force with 673 yards on 139 attempts and 6 TD, followed by Roberts’ 463 yards on 109 attempts and eight touchdowns. In total, the team has an astonishing five players with 320+ rushing yards and 4+ rushing touchdowns. The Falcons’ defense has been stout this season, allowing opponents just 19.8 PPG (26th out of 128 FBS teams) and 306 total YPG (12th out of 128).

Boise State has been solid on both sides of the ball this season, though its offense is not as potent as usual, generating 38.3 PPG and 499 YPG, 19th and 15th best of the FBS teams, respectively. Freshman QB Brett Rypien has averaged 317.4 passing YPG in eight games filling in for injured starting QB Ryan Finley, and tallying 14 TD along the way. He’s also thrown seven interceptions, three of which came in last week’s loss to New Mexico. Rypien has a pair of offensive weapons in WR Thomas Sperbeck, with whom he connected 20 times for 281 yards last week, and RB Jeremy McNichols, who leads the team with 901 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. The Broncos’ defense gives up just 19.6 PPG (23rd out of 128) and 302 total YPG (11th out of 128), with their secondary hauling in 15 interceptions on the season. The team has slipped a bit of late, allowing opponents a higher-than-average 31.0 PPG in its past four games.