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Cowboys host undefeated Panthers Thursday
By: Phil Burton - StatFox
Published: 11/25/2015  at  8:55:00 AM
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CAROLINA PANTHERS (10-0)
at DALLAS COWBOYS (3-7)

Kickoff: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Line: Carolina -1, Total: 46

The Cowboys are hoping for a Thanksgiving miracle as they host the undefeated Panthers on Thursday afternoon.

Carolina (10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS) continued its domination tour last week, dismantling Washington 44-16 in a game that saw QB Cam Newton toss five touchdowns to five different receivers. Struggling Dallas (3-7 SU and ATS) hopes its troubles are over now that QB Tony Romo has returned, with the team winning their first game since Week 2 last Sunday. The Cowboys have held the advantage over the Panthers all-time, going 9-3 SU and 6-5 ATS. Newton and Romo last met in 2012, with Dallas fending off a Carolina comeback in eking out a 19-14 victory. Betting trends largely favor the Panthers this week, as they are 16-2 ATS all-time after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better, and under head coach Ron Rivera the squad is 15-4 ATS when playing against a bad team (25% to 40% win pct.). Bettors looking to wager on the Cowboys can find a few positive trends to hang their hats on. The team is 15-5 ATS against opponents who force 2.5+ turnovers per game in the second half of the season since 1992, and 17-6 ATS at home after having lost three of the past four games in the same time period. Carolina is monitoring several injuries going into this week's game, including DE Charles Johnson (hamstring), G Andrew Norwell (hamstring), WR Philly Brown (shoulder), and CB Charles Tillman (knee), who are all listed as questionable. Dallas is finally starting to get healthy now that Romo and WR Dez Bryant have returned from protracted injuries. Nevertheless, they may be without WR Brice Butler (hamstring), CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring) and DE Ryan Russell (abdominal), who are questionable to play Thursday.

Can the Panthers run their record to 11-0 on Thursday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the four experts have a profitable 54% ATS collective record (84-71-7) in NFL Best Bets. StatFox Gary is leading the way at 60% ATS (21-14-2) this season, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (22-19-3). In terms of NFL Totals, Gary continues his strong season with a perfect 3-0 mark in Week 11 to improve to 59% (16-11) for the year.

As one would expect of a 10-0 team, Carolina has excelled on both sides of the ball this season. Captained by QB Cam Newton, the team's offense has scored 29.9 PPG (3rd in NFL) and generated 354.2 total YPG (15th in league). Newton doesn't attempt many passes (30.6 attempts per game, 27th in NFL), but connects when it counts, recording 20 passing TD (6th in league). Led by RB Jonathan Stewart, and supplemented by Newton and FB Mike Tolbert, the Panthers run more than any other team (34.2 attempts per game), tallying 140 YPG on the ground and 11 rushing touchdowns (both good for 5th-best in NFL). With last year's rookie phenom WR Kelvin Benjamin out all this season on the IR, Newton has managed to excel with a receiving corps patched together from a star tight end (Greg Olsen), scrappy newcomers (WRs Philly Brown and Devin Funchess), and tossed-away veterans (WRs Ted Ginn, and Jerricho Cotchery). The team has been hitting its stride in recent weeks, averaging 36.0 PPG and 366 YPG in its past three games. The Panthers' defense has been fierce as well, giving up just 19.1 PPG (5th in league) and 322.8 total YPG (4th in NFL), while leading the league in forced turnovers at 2.5 per game.

In the wake of injuries to its star skill players, the Dallas offense has struggled on the season, averaging only 19.0 PPG (27th in league) and 343.0 total YPG (20th in NFL). However, with No. 1 QB Tony Romo under center, the team averages a more respectable 23.7 PPG and 393.7 YPG. He was understandably a bit rusty in his first game back last week against the Dolphins, but still managed to secure the win while completing 18-of-28 passes for 227 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Cowboys fans will hope Romo's good luck streak against the Panthers continues on Thursday, as he's 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in his career in this matchup, averaging a 68% completion rate for 252 YPG and tallying three touchdowns against his opponent. Among the few relative bright spots for the Dallas offense has been veteran RB Darren McFadden, who has emerged at front of the depleted Cowboys' running corps to produce three 100+ yard games in his past five contests, though he's managed only a single rushing touchdown during the same period. Not surprisingly, the most reliable component of the team has been 33-year-old TE Jason Witten, who leads the squad in targets, receptions, and yards. Defensively, Dallas is giving up only 22.8 PPG and 336 total YPG this season, and those numbers jump to 28.2 PPG and 373 total YPG at home. Despite being on the field for an average time of just 26:16 per game, the unit is still giving up 104 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 231 passing YPG on 7.0 YPA and 64% completions. The Cowboys defense didn't force a single turnover in three October games, but has four takeaways over the past four contests, and will need to create some mistakes to knock off the top team in the NFC.


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