Big Ten Championship Game
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -3.5, Total: 52.5

A ticket to the College Football Playoff is likely on the line Saturday as Michigan State takes on undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.

The 5th-ranked Spartans (11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS) are riding high into their third conference championship game in five seasons, thanks to a decisive 55-16 victory over Penn State last week. Meanwhile, the undefeated, 4th-ranked Hawkeyes (12-0 SU and 7-5 ATS) secured a perfect regular season last weekend by grinding out a 28-20 win on the road against Nebraska. The Hawkeyes, who are slight underdogs on Saturday, have held an edge over the Spartans in recent years – winning 10-7 SU and 12-5 ATS since 1992. In their last meeting in 2013, Michigan State got the best of its opponent, upsetting Iowa 26-14 while limiting its ground game to just 23 rushing yards. This week, both teams have strong trends running in their favor to cover the spread. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS on the road playing against a top-level team (75%+ win pct.) over the past three seasons and 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of their previous six games in the past two years. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS on the road against good offensive teams (scoring 31+ PPG) in the past three seasons and 10-2 ATS away from home against Big Ten opponents over the same time period. Each school is fairly healthy going into Saturday’s game. FB Trevon Pendleton (leg), who was injured last week, is doubtful to play for Michigan State, while Iowa has no new injuries to report.

Which school will capture the Big Ten title and a probable berth into the national semifinals? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 59% ATS (42-29) success rate in the past two weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's amazing 77% ATS mark (17-5) during this run. StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (10-8) in the past two weeks.

Michigan State’s offense has been productive on the season, tallying 33.4 PPG (42nd in nation) while averaging 399.4 YPG. Senior QB Connor Cook has been the heart and soul of the Spartans’ offensive game, completing 193-of-336 (57.4%) for 2,720 yards, 24 TD, and just 4 INT. Cook was hot against Penn State last weekend, completing 19-of-26 (73.1%) for 248 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. WR Aaron Burbridge has remained Cook’s primary target throughout the season, catching 74 passes for 1,148 yards and 7 TD. The Spartans’ RB tandem of Gerald Holmes and LJ Scott have split work all season, with each contributing a rushing touchdown last week. On defense, Michigan State has been impressive in limiting opponents to 21.1 PPG (24th in FBS) and 349.0 YPG. The squad has really been on point the past three weeks, giving up just 12.3 PPG and 279.7 YPG while forcing three turnovers per game.

Iowa’s offense has performed virtually as well as its Saturday opponent, averaging 33.7 PPG (41st in the nation) and gaining 404.2 YPG. Junior QB C.J. Beathard has been a reliable steward of the team, completing 184-of-303 passes (60.7%) for 2,354 yards, 14 TD and just 3 INT. Beathard had a subdued game last week against Nebraska, going 9-for-16 (56.3%) for only 97 yards and a touchdown. Most of the Hawkeyes’ points have come on the ground this season, with RBs Jordan Canzeri (176 rush, 964 yds, 5.5 YPC, 12 TD), LeShun Daniels Jr. (127 rush, 592 yds, 4.7 YPC, 8 TD), and Akrum Wadley (69 rush, 449 yds, 6.5 YPC, 7 TD) contributing the bulk of the production, and Beathard adding 82 rushes for 285 yards and six scores. Canzeri had himself a solid performance last week, running 17 times for 140 yards and a pair of touchdowns. WR Matt VandeBerg has been Beathard’s go-to receiver on the season, earning more than twice as many receptions (59) as any of his teammates (29), though his production has dwindled in his past few games. Iowa’s defense has been stout this season, ceding just 18.7 PPG (15th in FBS) and 333.6 total YPG. However, unlike its Saturday opponent, the squad has struggled in the past few weeks, surrendering 25.0 PPG and 424.0 total YPG in their past three contests.