The 3rd-ranked Spartans (12-1 SU and 5-7 ATS) clinched their second Big Ten championship in three seasons earlier this month, eking out a 16-13 win over Iowa, the second top-5 school the Spartans defeated in their past three games (along with Ohio State). The 2nd-ranked Crimson Tide, the reigning SEC champions, are riding a 10-game winning streak culminating in a 29-15 victory over conference rival Florida, and are heavy favorites to advance to the National Championship game for the fourth time in seven years. These schools have met just once before, in the 2011 Capital One Bowl, in a game that saw future NFL stars Mark Ingram, Eddie Lacy and Julio Jones all score for the Crimson Tide en route to a 49-7 win. Michigan State has several strong trends in its favor coming into this game. The team is 8-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses (allowing 3.25 or fewer rushing YPC) over the past three seasons, and 9-0 ATS after having won four or five out of their past six games in the past two years. Bettors looking to back Alabama can find several compelling trends as well, as the squad is 13-3 ATS on the road after two consecutive games where they forced zero or one turnovers since 1992, and under head coach Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide are 24-10 ATS coming off an ATS loss where the team won SU as a favorite. Both teams are fairly healthy going into the Cotton Bowl, with Spartans FB Trevon Pendleton (leg) listed as questionable to play.
Can Alabama win again in dominating fashion? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.
Michigan State’s offense has been above-average this season, scoring 32.1 PPG (49th in nation), though it has tallied 17 or fewer points in two of the past three games. The offense is led by senior QB Connor Cook, who has completed 209-of-368 passes (57%) for 2,911 yards, 24 TD and just five interceptions. Cook had a lackluster performance in the Big Ten Championship game though, going 16-of-32 for 191 yards, 0 TDs and one interception. The team prevailed despite Cook’s down day, but the Spartans will need him to be in peak form if they hope to advance to the National Championship game. Cook’s No. 1 outlet is senior WR Aaron Burbridge, who leads the team with 1,255 total yards on 79 catches and seven runs, adding 7 TD receptions. Burbridge has topped 100 receiving yards in seven games this season, though since Nov. 7, he hasn’t gone above 75 yards. RBs LJ Scott (140 rush, 691 yards, 11 TD), Madre London (114 rush, 489 yards, 3 TD), and Gerald Holmes (108 rush, 534 yards, 8 TD) comprise the bulk of the team’s ground game, with Scott contributing the go-ahead TD with 27 seconds remaining in the conference title win against Iowa. The Michigan State defense has performed well on the season, allowing opponents 20.5 PPG (22nd in FBS) and 343 total YPG, while limiting their time on the field to just 26:42 per game. The Spartans will hope to keep up their recent defensive play of allowing just 14.3 PPG and 272.7 YPG in the past three games. The team has given up only 90 rushing YPG on the road this season, a stat that will be tested by their opponent’s potent ground attack.
Alabama’s offense has been strong this season, averaging 34.1 PPG (35th in nation) and 423 total YPG. Senior QB Jake Coker helms the Crimson Tide offense, connecting on 222-of-338 passes (66%) for 2,489 yards, 17 TD and 8 INT. Coker had a solid outing in the SEC Championship game, going 18-of-26 (69%) for 204 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The heart of the team this season has been junior RB Derrick Henry, the nation’s leading rusher with 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns. Alabama has been particularly disciplined in clock management away from home this season, controlling the ball for an average of 34:29 a game outside of Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide defense is among the best in the nation, limiting opponents to just 14.4 PPG (3rd in FBS) on the season, including 11.3 PPG and 191 total YPG in the past three games. The team continues to excel in neutralizing opponents’ rushing attacks, giving up just 79 YPG – most recently allowing 18th-ranked Florida to gain just 15 yards on the ground.
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