Big 12 champion Oklahoma takes on the top-ranked Clemson on New Year's Eve in the Orange Bowl, with a spot in the College Football Playoff National Championship game on the line.
The 4th-ranked Sooners (11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS) have won their past seven games, including three straight victories against top-12 teams. The No. 1 Tigers (13-0 SU and 6-6-1 ATS) haven’t lost a game since November 2014, and wrapped up the ACC Championship with a 45-37 victory over No. 8 North Carolina earlier this month. Despite their perfect record, the Tigers are slight underdogs in what will be their fourth game against a ranked opponent this season. The Orange Bowl will be the teams’ fifth meeting all-time, with the series split 2-2. The schools last collided in last season’s Russell Athletic Bowl, with Clemson dominating Oklahoma 40-6 in an upset that saw the Sooners turn the ball over five times while gaining just 103 passing yards. Both teams have several trends pointing in their favor to beat the spread in this game though. Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in non-home games after a win by 21+ points over the past three seasons, and 7-1 ATS this season coming off a game in which it gained 475+ total yards. Clemson, meanwhile, is 37-14 ATS when playing against a top-level team (winning more than 75% of their games) since 1992, and 29-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the same time period. The Sooners and Tigers are both healthy and rested going into the Orange Bowl, with no current injuries to report.
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Oklahoma’s offense is one of the best in the nation, averaging an astounding 45.8 PPG (3rd in FBS) and 543 totalYPG. Junior QB Baker Mayfield, in his first season with the team, has connected on 243-of-354 throws (69%) for 3,389 yards, 35 TD and just five interceptions. Mayfield, a former walk-on at Texas Tech, capped off the regular season with a 17-of-25 (68%) performance for 180 years and a pair of passing touchdowns against rival Oklahoma State, adding 77 rushing yards and running in a score for good measure. WR Sterling Shepard is Mayfield’s primary option, catching 79 passes for 1,201 yards and 11 TD, and scoring at least one time in each of his past five games. Sophomore RB Samaje Perine is the team’s leading rusher, running 211 times for 1,291 yards and 15 TD, 11 of which have come in the second half of the season. The Sooners’ defense has been stout, giving up just 20.8 PPG (23rd in nation), but allowing opponents to move the ball for 352 total YPG. In the past three games, the team has forced opponents to turn the ball over nine times, while limiting their own turnovers to just two in the same period.
Clemson has been balanced on both sides of the ball this season en route to its first 13-0 record in school history. The Tigers’ offense generates 38.5 PPG (15th in FBS) and 510 total YPG, and has been especially productive on the road – averaging 42.2 PPG and 547 total YPG, while controlling the ball for 33:25. QB Deshaun Watson led the ACC in a number of categories, while completing 287-of-413 passes (70%) for 3,517 yards, 30 TD and 11 interceptions. Watson was responsible for five touchdowns in the team’s victory over North Carolina in the conference title game, throwing three and adding a pair of rushing touchdowns. That gives Watson a team-high 11 scores on the ground, and he has tallied 887 yards on 163 runs, second only to RB Wayne Gallman, who has carried the football 242 times for 1,319 yards and 10 TD. The sophomore quarterback has a number of offensive weapons to rely on, connecting with 10 separate receivers for touchdowns on the season, though WR Artavis Scott is Watson’s foremost beneficiary, snagging 84 catches for 805 yards and five touchdowns. The Tigers’ defense has allowed just 20.2 PPG (20th in FBS) and 296 total YPG this season, but in their last two games they’ve given up a hefty 34.5 PPG and 392 total YPG.
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