The Volunteers (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) haven't lost by more than seven points all season, while both losses for the Wildcats (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) were blowouts (38-0 at Michigan, 40-10 vs. Iowa). These teams have met just once in school history, with the Volunteers thumping the Wildcats 48-28 in the 1997 Citrus Bowl. Both teams are riding five-game winning streaks, and Northwestern is seeking a school record 11th victory this season. Neither team has strong trends running in its favor to cover the spread. Tennessee is 42-21 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers since 1992, while Northwestern is 46-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the same time period. Both teams are fairly healthy coming into the game. The Volunteers experienced a rash of season-ending injuries earlier in the fall, but haven’t added any new injuries to their report since mid-November. The Wildcats will likely be without CB Nick VanHoose (finger), who is expected to miss the game.
Can Tennessee win and cover the big spread in this matchup? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.
Northwestern has found success this season despite having one of the least productive offenses in the nation. The team scores only 20.7 PPG (112th in FBS) and generates 333 total YPG this season, and produces a mere 17.2 PPG in non-home games. This is about half of the 34.2 PPG that Tennessee scores on the road. The Wildcats are led by QB Clayton Thorson, who is 142-of-275 (52%) on the season for 1,465 yards, 7 TD and also seven interceptions. RB Justin Jackson generates the bulk of the team’s offense, running 298 times for 1,344 yards and 4 TD on the ground, along with 19 receptions for 147 yards. For all they lack on offense, the Wildcats have a tremendous defense, allowing just 16.4 PPG (7th in nation) and 311 total YPG. They’ve been even stingier in their last three games, giving up a scant 11.7 PPG and 294 YPG.
Tennessee possesses a solid offense, racking up 34.3 PPG (29th in FBS) and 423 total YPG, while coughing up just one turnover per game. The Vols’ running game is the centerpiece of the offense, good for 223 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC. They key offensive player in this game is Tennessee RB Jalen Hurd, who has 599 total yards during the team’s five-game win streak, and 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. QB Joshua Dobbs has out-produced his opponent on the season, going 191-of-319 (60%) for 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The junior has added 623 rushing yards and 9 TD on the ground for good measure. The Volunteers’ defense has been decent on the season, allowing 21.2 PPG (27th in nation) and 370 total YPG, and has phenomenal in the past three matches, ceding just 12.0 PPG and 278 total YPG.
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