The Fighting Irish (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) will take on the Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) in Phoenix, which will mark the teams’ first meeting in a decade. The last matchup of these schools occurred in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, which Ohio State won 34-20, making the team 3-0 (SU and ATS) versus Notre Dame since 1995. The trends to beat the spread run almost entirely in the Buckeyes' favor. The team is 24-8 ATS versus excellent rushing teams (5.25+ YPC) since 1992, and 48-27 ATS after winning five or six of its previous seven games over the same time period. Bettors looking to side with the Irish can take notice that Ohio State is just 3-11 ATS when coming off road games over the past three seasons. Notre Dame will be dealing with a handful of injuries going into the game, most notably top RB C.J. Prosise (1,032 rush yds, 11 TD), who is questionable to play with a lingering ankle sprain. CB KeiVarae Russell (tibia) is expected to miss the game, while DL Jarron Jones (knee) and TE Durham Smythe (knee) are both questionable to play. LB James Onwuali (knee) is listed as probable. The Buckeyes are largely healthy, but may be a bit thin on their defensive line with DL Adolphus Washington (suspension) expected to miss the game and DL Tommy Schutt (foot) questionable to play.
Who will win this marquee matchup on New Year's Day? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.
Notre Dame’s offense has been solid on the season, averaging 34.7 PPG (27th in nation) and 472 total YPG, though the scoring drops to 29.5 PPG away from home. Production on the ground has been a strength of the Fighting Irish, who average 5.8 yards per carry, while QB DeShone Kizer connects on 63.3% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt, 19 TD and 9 INT on the season. Notre Dame hopes to have RB C.J. Prosise (1,032 rush yds, 6.6 YPC, 11 TD) back on the field for the game, but even if he does carry the football, the team may not find many holes against an Ohio State squad that has outrushed opponents by a ridiculous 313 YPG to 97 YPG margin on the road this year. The Fighting Irish defense has been decent, limiting opponents to 22.4 PPG (35th in FBS) and 362 total YPG, though they average just 1.1 turnovers per game. The unit hasn’t played nearly as well on the road, ceding 25.8 PPG and managing only 0.8 turnovers per game.
Ohio State is well-matched with its opponent on offense, putting up 35.0 PPG (25th in nation) and 429 total YPG. The team has excelled away from home this season, upping its offensive production to 39.0 PPG and a whopping 508 total YPG. Led by RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,672 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 19 TD), the Buckeyes rack up 313 rushing YPG on an eye-popping 7.0 yards per run. Elliott has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the team’s 11 wins on the season, and he was a monster in national semifinals and finals last year when he rushed for 476 yards (8.5 YPC) and six touchdowns in those two wins. Sophomore QB J.T. Barrett, who secured the starting job midway through the season, has connected on 74-of-116 throws (64%) for 781 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT, while adding 586 yards and 11 TD on the ground. The Buckeyes’ defense has been elite this year, holding opponents to a paltry 14.0 PPG (2nd in FBS) and 304 total YPG (4.4 yards per play). Since allowing 28 points to Maryland on Oct. 10, the team has limited the past six opponents to a mere 10.7 PPG, with none of the six surpassing 17 points.
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