No. 14 Michigan hopes to reach the 10-win mark in its first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh when it faces No. 19 Florida, which is struggling on offense, in the New Year's Day Citrus Bowl.
The Gators (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) will feel at home in the Sunshine State in a battle with the Wolverines (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) in Orlando. The teams have met just twice all-time, with Michigan taking both of those high-scoring matchups (SU and ATS). The first occurred in the 2003 Outback Bowl (38-30) and most recently was an exciting 41-35 result in the 2008 Capital One Bowl. The trends to beat the spread for the third meeting run exclusively in Florida’s favor. The team is 41-22 ATS in road games versus good passing teams (with a 58%+ completion pct.) since 1992 and 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more straight Overs during the past three seasons. The Gators are fairly healthy coming into this game, though OL Alex McCalister (foot) is doubtful to play, and WR Brandon Powell (foot) is listed as questionable. The Wolverines are monitoring a handful of injuries, most pressingly QB Jake Rudock’s shoulder, which has him listed as probable for the Citrus Bowl. DT Bryan Mone (leg), WR Brian Cole (undisclosed), and RB Derrick Green (undisclosed) are questionable to play, while DB Jabrill Peppers (undisclosed) is probable.
Which school will start the new year with a victory? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.
Florida’s offense has been below average this season, scoring 24.5 PPG (98th in nation) and generating 338 total YPG, and has slowed down even more significantly in recent weeks. In their past three games (which includes two losses), the Gators have scored only 12.3 PPG on 231 total YPG. QB Treon Harris has led the offensive unit after the suspension of QB Will Grier, completing only 111-of-214 throws (51.9%) for 1,530 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. RB Kelvin Taylor has been the team’s top scorer on the season, running 248 times for 985 yards and finding the end zone on 13 occasions. The Gators’ success on the season is largely attributable to their stout defense, which allows just 16.5 PPG (8th in FBS) and 295 total YPG. The squad’s stats on the defensive side of the ball have taken a hit in recent weeks as well, as it has surrendered 23.3 PPG and 347 total YPG to its past three opponents. But there are plenty of playmakers on this unit, as evidenced by 25 takeaways this season.
Michigan’s offense has been solid this year, putting 30.6 PPG (50th in nation) on the board and tallying a respectable 387 total YPG, while controlling the ball an average of 33:02 per game. Unlike their Citrus Bowl opponent, the Wolverines have hit their stride towards the end of the season, scoring 34.5 PPG in the past four contests. QB Jake Rudock is the offensive heart of the team, completing 229-of-358 throws (64.0%) for 2,739 yards, 17 TD and nine interceptions, while adding four rushing touchdowns to the mix. The team expects that he’ll be nearly 100% healed from his shoulder injury by New Year’s Day, which is good news, as backup QB Wilton Speight struggled in the team’s loss to Ohio State, connecting on just 6-of-14 passes (42.9%) and throwing a pick while failing to find the end zone. The Michigan defense is nearly as formidable as Florida’s on the season, ceding opponents 17.2 PPG (12th in FBS) and 281 total YPG, though they have similar struggled as of late – giving up 33.0 PPG and 405 total YPG in its past three games while managing just one turnover over that span. The turnovers aren't much of a surprise, considering the Wolverines have tallied only 10 takeaways all season, with just three forced turnovers during the past seven games combined.
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