StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 9 FSU matches up with No. 18 Houston in Peach Bowl
By: Phil Burton - StatFox
Published: 12/22/2015  at  11:03:00 PM
  Print This Article    

HOUSTON COUGARS (12-1)
vs. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (10-2)

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 31, Noon ET
Line: Florida State -7, Total: 55.5

Atlanta plays host to a rockin’ New Year’s Eve match between dynamic No. 18 Houston and streaking No. 9 Florida State, winners of three straight, in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

This game between the Cougars (12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS) and Seminoles (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) marks the first meeting between the schools in over 35 years, with Houston holding a commanding 12-2-2 SU edge over Florida State in 16 matches throughout the 1960s and 1970s. Both teams have betting trends running in their favor in this game. The Cougars are 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons, and 11-2 ATS away from home after an SU win over the same time period. The Seminoles, who opened at 6.5-point favorites, are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in four or five out of their previous six games over the past three years, and bettors may note that it has paid off 44-14 ATS over the past 10 seasons to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (like Houston) who are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals when they face an opponent (like Florida State) who is playing on the heels of a double-digit road win. Injuries may be a major factor in this contest, as both schools are hampered by maladies. DB Jeremy Winchester (MCL), backup QB Kyle Postma (knee), OL Colton Freeman (stinger), OG Ben Dew (toe), and RB Ryan Jackson (collarbone) are questionable to play for the Cougars, but the good news is that star RB Kenneth Farrow (ankle) and DB Howard Wilson (knee) have both been upgraded to probable. The Seminoles have listed LB Lorenzo Phillips (knee) and WR Ermon Lane (knee) as doubtful to play, while TE Jeremy Kerr (concussion), DB Marcus Lewis (concussion), LB Terrance Smith (ankle), LB Reggie Northrup (flu), and OL Chad Mavety (flu) are questionable.

Can the Seminoles win comfortably in what should be an entertaining New Year's Eve matchup? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.

Houston’s offense has been prolific on the season, generating an impressive 40.6 PPG (12th in nation) and 487 total YPG. QB Greg Ward Jr. and RB Kenneth Farrow are the unquestioned leaders of the 12-win Cougars squad. Ward has completed 206-of-304 passes (67.8%), amassing 2,589 yards, 16 TD and 5 INT through the air, while leading the team with 1,047 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground – good for third-best in the nation. Farrow has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but is expected to return in time for New Year’s Eve. The team’s production has suffered a bit in Farrow’s absence, posting 31.0 PPG and 404 YPG over their past three matchups. The Houston squad is no slouch on defense. The team gives up just 20.5 PPG (25th in FBS) and 381 total YPG, and has performed slightly better on the road this season (18.4 PPG, 341.6 YPG). The unit has generated a healthy 30 turnovers this year, with four games of four takeaways. However, the Seminoles are rarely bit by the turnover bug, as they have seven giveaway-free contests in 2015.

The lack of turnovers has made Florida State’s offense above average this year, producing 32.3 PPG (45th in nation) and 425 total YPG. The team has increased its output to 37.7 PPG in its past three games, but has found itself struggling on the road, averaging a dismal 18.8 PPG and 298 total YPG. RB Dalvin Cook is the centerpiece of the Seminoles’ offense, leading the ACC in touchdowns (19), rushing yards (1,658), and yards from scrimmage (1,876), and earning the conference record for rushing yards per attempt over a collegiate career (7.0). QB Everett Golson has connected on 147-of-219 of his throws (67.1%) for 1,778 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The Seminoles’ defense is one of the best in the nation, allowing a scant 15.8 PPG (5th in FBS) and 328 total YPG, and the squad has been on fire recently, holding its opponents to 10.7 PPG and 277 total YPG over its three-game win streak to close out the regular season. This has occurred despite a low amount of takeaways (four) in the past five games, and Houston's offense has multiple turnovers in just 3-of-13 games this season.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: