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Broncos host Panthers in Week 1 SB rematch
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 9/8/2016  at  9:04:00 AM
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CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-0)
at DENVER BRONCOS (0-0)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Carolina -2.5, Total: 43

As the Post-Peyton Manning Era begins in Denver, the 2016 season kicks-off with MVP Cam Newton looking for revenge in a Super Bowl 50 rematch.

The Panthers started 2015 with 14-straight wins. They weren’t all pretty, but an average margin of victory of 12.2 is a testament to Carolina’s dominance. A 20-13 loss at Atlanta was the only blemish on the season before Super Bowl 50. The Broncos defense had Cam Newton’s number right from the start, and the Panthers fell 24-10 as 4.5-point underdogs. Carolina’s dynamic offense gained more than it lost this offseason, as 2014 rookie standout WR Kelvin Benjamin returns from a torn ACL. Opponents may take a cue from Atlanta and Denver and blitz more aggressively against Newton, but in doing so they run the risk of him breaking a long run or beating them with a precision deep ball. CB Josh Norman’s departure after a breakout season leaves question marks at cornerback, but Carolina’s secondary has the depth and the system to remain productive behind their outstanding front seven. Despite year-long struggles on offense and a flip-flopping QB situation, the Broncos emerged from a turbulent 2015 season as champions. A 12-4 regular season included three overtime wins, and including the playoffs, 11 of Denver’s 15 wins were by seven points or fewer. With Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler gone, the QB duties will be handled by 2015 seventh-round draft pick Trevor Siemian. There isn’t any top-level talent in the backfield, and WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have been underutilized as Denver’s quarterback play has diminished. Despite losses on defense, the Broncos still have two all-time great edge-rushers in OLBs Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, as well as the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL. Prior to Super Bowl 50, these teams met in 2012: As 3.5-point road favorites, Denver sacked Newton seven times and won 36-14. Since 2014, Carolina is 12-4 ATS (11-5 SU) in games where the line is +3 to -3, and 3-0 ATS & SU as a road favorite of three points or less. Denver was 3-0 ATS & SU as a home underdog last season, and is 6-3-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 2014.

Nobody scored more than Carolina’s 31.3 points per game, and Cam Newton’s MVP season (3,837 passing yards, 35 passing TD, 10 INT, 636 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD) solidified his place amongst the NFL’s quarterbacking elite. The Panthers’ potent running game (142 rushing yards per game, 2nd in the NFL) is a unique system predicated on Newton’s ability to run or act as a decoy, but Carolina may lighten Newton’s workload in an attempt to keep him healthy. RB Jonathan Stewart (989 rushing yards, 6 TD) has missed 36% of Carolina’s regular-season games since 2012, and there are no proven options behind him on the depth chart. TE Greg Olsen was Newton’s top target last year, hauling in 77 passes for 1,104 yards and seven TD. Olsen often stays in to block, as Carolina uses seven-and eight-man protection schemes when looking deep to WR Ted Ginn (44 receptions, 739 yards, 10 TD). Large-bodied WR Kelvin Benjamin, a 1,000-yard receiver as a rookie in 2014, will cut into Ginn’s and Olsen’s targets as he returns from the knee injury that cost him the 2015 season. Second-year WR Devin Funchess (31 receptions, 473 yards, 5 TD) is another athletic target built like a tight end, and he should see a spike in playing time after a promising offseason. Carolina’s 2015 defense held opponents to 5.8 yards per pass attempt (2nd in the NFL). Though CB Josh Norman is in Washington now, the Panthers’ zone-heavy scheme in the secondary made him more dispensable than most All-Pro cornerbacks. LBs Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis might be the league’s best tandem. Both players are assets in coverage and can make tackles from sideline to sideline. DT Kawann Short (11 sacks) and DE Kony Ealy (3 sacks, an INT and a forced fumble in the Super Bowl) are rising stars on a stalwart defensive line.

Denver won a championship in spite of their offense, not because of it, ranking 19th in scoring (22.2 points per game) and 20th in yards per play (5.4) during the regular season. QBs Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler combined for 19 passing TD and 24 turnovers. With Manning now retired and Osweiler getting paid handsomely by Houston, QB Trevor Siemian is set to start under center in Week 1. He has not yet made a throw in his short NFL career, but Kubiak felt he knew the offense better than both Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch. Demaryius Thomas (105 receptions, 1,304 yards, 6 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (76/1,135/6) are one of the league’s best WR duos, but the former was ineffective and stone-handed late last season, while the latter needs a more accurate downfield passer to play to his strengths. RB C.J. Anderson (720 rushing yards, 5 TD) is the top dog in a lackluster backfield rotation, while free agent signing OT Russell Okung should enrich a mediocre offensive line. During the regular season, Denver led the league in both yards per rush (3.3) and yards per pass attempt (5.6). The Broncos D has holes to fill after its amazing playoff run, during which it held three of the league’s top four scoring offenses to just 14.7 points per game. DL Malik Jackson got a $90-million contract in Jacksonville, then DL Vance Walker, projected to replace him in the starting lineup, tore his ACL in an August practice. Unproven third-year ILB Todd Davis will be thrust into the starting lineup with ILB Danny Trevathan signing with Chicago. Despite the new faces in the starting lineup, Denver retained its strength in its passing defense. While CB Aqib Talib may eventually face suspension after an offseason incident which included a gunshot to his leg, he and CBs Chris Harris and Bradley Roby are the best coverage trio in the NFL. Their ability to shadow receivers allows defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial up pressure, usually led by OLBs Von Miller (16 sacks and six forced fumbles, including the playoffs) and DeMarcus Ware (11 sacks, including the playoffs).


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