Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, MI
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -35.5, Total: 55.5

Already with one more win than they had all of last season, the UCF Knights will take their best shot at #5 Michigan, who showed no mercy against Hawaii.

Michigan’s 2015 season was a remarkable inaugural campaign for Jim Harbaugh, who has kept his and his program’s names in the press year-round since his hiring. He immediately turned the team around from 5-7 to 10-3 (7-6 ATS) and finished his first season with a 41-7 beatdown over Florida in the Citrus Bowl. He’s yet to win a marquee Big Ten matchup, however, and a 42-13 loss to 1.5-point favorite Ohio State to end the regular season ensured that there would be plenty left for Harbaugh to achieve after his first year as a Wolverine. New starting sophomore QB Wilton Speight (145 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) played encouragingly well in the opener, but a 63-3 win over 38-point underdog Hawaii didn’t prove much about a Michigan team that will have limited opportunities to impress against quality competition this year. Only two seasons removed from winning the Fiesta Bowl, UCF suffered a nightmare 0-12 season last year (2-10 ATS). Things started ugly and only got worse, culminating in a season-ending 44-3 loss to in-state rival USF (-24.5). Out is George O’Leary as head coach and in is Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost, who appears to have the tools to shape the Knights’ considerable raw talent. He’s already improved upon his predecessor’s final season, beating FCS opponent South Carolina State (+26) 38-0 to give the program its first win since 2014. UCF returns all of its production from last season. A trend of underdogs of 31.5 or more with at least 17 starters returning performing 49-19 ATS since 1992 bodes well for their prospects of covering against Michigan. Underdogs by the same margin who outgained their previous opponent by more than 175 yards have gone 26-6 in the same timeframe; UCF outgained SC State by 243 yards. In the last three seasons, Michigan is 7-1 UNDER after playing non-conference games.

After serving as backup to Blake Bortles in the 2014 season, Senior QB Justin Holman had a tough go as the Knights’ primary starter last year, even as 0-12 seasons go. Nearly his entire receiving corps was freshmen, and he missed three starts due to injury. He finished with 1,379 yards passing, a 51 percent completion rate, seven touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He’ll benefit more than anyone from the arrival of Frost and his up-tempo spread offense. The SC State game showed that the installation of the system remains a work in progress, although that’s far more than the Knights could say about their offense at this time last year. Holman’s best weapon is WR Tre’Quan Smith (4 catches, 65 yards, TD), who caught 52 balls for 724 yards and was named AAC Rookie of the Year last season. No UCF running back hit 350 yards or scored three rushing touchdowns last season, so improvement in that department seems inevitable. Freshman Jawon Hamilton (14 carries, 53 yards) and sophomore Taj McGowan (11 carries, 48 yards) handled the bulk of the load in the opener. On defense, the Knights lose a lot up front but retain junior DT Jamiyus Pittman, who led the team with 4.5 sacks last year. A deep and experienced secondary might be the bright spot on the roster.

Michigan’s strength this year remains its defense. Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin, architect of the nation’s fourth-best defense in yards allowed per game (281) is gone to the post of head coach at Maryland. His replacement, Don Brown, was the coordinator at Boston College, whose defense was best in the country in yards allowed per game (254) last season. Sophomore Jabrill Peppers, this year’s defensive player whose name gets thrown around in preseason Heisman talk, has moved from safety to linebacker this season. But Peppers (8 tackles) will see time all over the field—to use him at just one position is to waste his abilities. Senior Jourdan Lewis might be the best cornerback in the country, but he missed the Hawaii game and is questionable to play against UCF. Senior DE Chris Wormley (6.5 sacks, Second Team All-Big Ten last year) returns to lead a defensive front that struggled with injuries last year, but has enormous potential. Freshman DT Rashan Gary, the No. 1 overall recruit in his class, should see significant time this week. On the other side of the ball, Speight will get his second career start and continue his process of becoming comfortable with the offense. He only threw 13 passes before being subbed out in last week’s blowout, and he could see limited action again if things get out of hand. The Wolverines’ running game was subpar last season, ranking 84th in the country with 158.2 yards per game, and will need to be in a rhythm to support Speight by the time conference play begins. Freshman RB Chris Evans looks like the early favorite to be the feature back, having churned for 112 yards and two touchdowns on only eight carries against Hawaii. Junior Ty Isaac ran for 52 yards on nine carries and sophomore Karan Higdon went for 35 on six carries and scored a touchdown. Senior De’veon Smith, last year’s rushing leader with 755 yards and six touchdowns, gained only 27 yards on six carries. A running-back-by-committee approach appears likely this season, at least for the first few weeks. Senior TE Jake Butt (19-yard TD) is the top tight end prospect for the 2017 NFL Draft.