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In potential wild-card game preview, Jays host O's
By: Brad Kallet - StatFox
Published: 9/29/2016  at  12:33:00 PM
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BALTIMORE ORIOLES (86-72)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (87-71)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:07 p.m. ET
Line: Baltimore +155, Toronto -170, Total: 9.0

In a potential preview of the American League wild-card game, the Orioles and Blue Jays conclude their three-game series in Toronto.

The American League wild-card race is as tight as can be. Coming into Thursday’s action, the Blue Jays (87-71)—currently holding the top wild-card spot—lead the division-rival Orioles (86-72) by a game. The O’s, clinging to the second wild-card berth, lead the Tigers by a game and the Mariners by two. The Blue Jays won the opener of this series, 5-1, on Tuesday night, but the O’s evened the series on Wednesday night with a dramatic, come-from-behind win. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (7-12, 5.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) will start the finale of the series, and he’ll be opposed by Blue Jays RHP Marcus Stroman (9-9, 4.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). John Gibbons’ team is 10-8 against the Orioles this season, including a 6-3 mark at Rogers Centre. The Orioles have gone 36-41 away from Camden Yards in 2016. The Blue Jays have posted a 46-34 mark at home.

The Orioles have one of the most powerful lineups in baseball, as evidenced by their 247 home runs (1st in AL), .444 slugging percentage (2nd in AL) and .761 OPS (3rd in AL). 3B Manny Machado (.298, 36 HR, 94 RBI) has been Buck Showalter’s best player in 2016, and CF Adam Jones (.272, 28 HR, 82 RBI) has had another productive season. RF Mark Trumbo (.250, 46 HR, 106 RBI) and 1B Chris Davis (.217, 38 HR, 84 RBI) are first and seventh in the AL in homers, respectively. The O’s haven’t seen a ton of Stroman. Jones (6-for-11) has hit him particularly well, and C Matt Wieters (.243, 15 HR, 61 RBI) is 4-for-10 against him with a pair of homers. Jimenez has gone 0-1 against the Jays in three starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. For his career, he’s 6-5 against Toronto with a 4.48 ERA.

Like the Orioles, the Blue Jays have a very dangerous lineup, led by reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson (.286, 37 HR, 98 RBI) and 1B Edwin Encarnacion (.265, 42 HR, 127 RBI). SS Troy Tulowitzki (.255, 24 HR, 78 RBI), DH Jose Bautista (.234, 21 HR, 67 RBI) and C Russell Martin (.234, 20 HR, 74 RBI)—all of whom remain threats—have had very disappointing campaigns. The Jays have seen a lot of Jimenez, but their individual numbers against him aren’t particularly impressive. Bautista (3-for-35), Donaldson (5-for-26 with 1 HR), Encarnacion (9-for-39 with 1 HR) and Martin (12-for-45 with 14 SO) have been stymied by the right-hander. RF Michael Saunders (.255, 24 HR, 57 RBI) has crushed him, however, going 9-for-19 with four homers and nine RBIs. In three starts against the O’s this season, Stroman is 1-1. In 16 innings over those three starts, he allowed 14 earned runs. For his career, Stroman is 2-2 against Baltimore with a 6.00 ERA.


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