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Mets host Giants in NL Wild Card game
By: Brad Kallet - StatFox
Published: 10/5/2016  at  3:21:00 AM
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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (87-75)

at NEW YORK METS (87-75)

First pitch: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: San Francisco -105, New York -105, Total: 6.0

Aces Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner take the ball as the Mets host the Giants at Citi Field in the National League Wild Card game.

The Mets and the Giants finished the regular season with identical 87-75 records, and now they will play one game for the right to take on the Cubs in the National League Division Series. Mets ace RHP Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), the obvious choice for manager Terry Collins, will get the start for New York, and he’ll be opposed by Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), one of the greatest postseason pitchers of his generation, and perhaps of all-time. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the former World Series MVP has the lowest road ERA (0.60) in postseason history (minimum 25 IP). The Giants have gone 7-0 in the seven road postseason games that Bumgarner has appeared in. The Mets won the season series 4-3—six of those seven games went OVER THE TOTAL—and went 2-1 against San Francisco at Citi Field. The Mets, who lost to the Royals in the World Series last year, are in the postseason for consecutive years for just the second time in franchise history. The Giants missed the playoffs in 2015, but are hoping to continue their every-other-year pattern; they won the Fall Classic in 2010, 2012 and 2014, and missed the playoffs in all the odd years in between. Bruce Bochy’s club went 42-39 on the road this season, while the Mets posted a 44-37 mark in Flushing.

The Giants play good defense and can manufacture runs, but their offense isn’t particularly imposing. RF Hunter Pence (.289, 13 HR, 57 RBI) and C Buster Posey (.288, 14 HR, 80 RBI) are the most dangerous hitters in San Francisco’s lineup, but even they had relatively subpar seasons. They have very little power, as 1B Brandon Belt (.275, 17 HR, 82 RBI) led the club in homers with just 17. No Giants have more than eight career at-bats against Syndergaard, and only Pence (1-for-5) has homered off him. Posey is 3-for-6 lifetime against Thor. Bumgarner faced the Mets twice this season and won both games. He threw six scoreless innings at Citi Field in May, but surrendered four runs in five innings at AT&T Park in August. Bumgarner has never lost to the Mets, going 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA. At Citi Field, he’s posted a 4-0 record and pitched to a 0.62 ERA, and is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA in the postseason. Look for the Mets to work counts and get into the Giants’ bullpen, which blew an astounding 30 saves in 2016.

3B Jose Reyes (.267, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB in 60 GP) and SS Asdrubal Cabrera (.280, 23 HR, 62 RBI) set the table for the Mets, and LF Yoenis Cespedes—who will be, hands down, the best position player on the field Wednesday night—drives them in (.280, 31 HR, 86 RBI). CF Curtis Granderson (.237, 30 HR, 59 RBI) had a big power year for New York, and Jay Bruce (.250, 33 HR, 99 RBI)—who was dreadful after being acquired at the trade deadline—got hot in the final weeks of the season. Bruce is 3-for-21 with a homer against Bumgarner, and Cespedes has gone 3-for-10 against him with a double. IF Kelly Johnson (.247, 10 HR, 34 RBI) has seven hits in 20 at-bats against the lefty, but it’s unlikely that he’ll start. Syndergaard faced the Giants twice this season and went 1-1. He allowed four earned run in 5 2/3 innings in the first start, but was spectacular in the second, tossing eight scoreless innings and giving up just two hits.


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