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Cubs begin World Series quest against Giants
By: Brad Kallet - StatFox
Published: 10/7/2016  at  10:23:00 AM
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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (87-75)

at CHICAGO CUBS (103-58)

First pitch: Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: San Francisco +160, Chicago -180, Total: 7.0

The major league-best Cubs, favored to win their first World Series since 1908, kick off their postseason at Wrigley Field against the Giants, who defeated the Mets in the National League Wild Card Game.

The NL Central-champion Cubs (103-58) and the Giants (87-75) had very different seasons. Joe Maddon’s team dominated the league from start to finish while the Giants barely squeaked into the postseason, nabbing the second NL wild card and defeating the Mets, 3-0, in a thriller to advance to the NLDS. All the pressure is on the Cubs, who were easily the best team in baseball this season and who haven’t been champions since 1908. It’s World Series or bust for Chicago. The Giants, on the other hand, don’t have nearly as much talent as their opponents. They have experience, however, winning three World Series in the past six years. Bruce Bochy’s team is fundamentally sound, clutch and mentally tough. RHP Johnny Cueto (18-5, 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) will start Game 1 for the Giants, and he’ll be opposed by LHP Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA, 1.02) in a matchup of two exceptional pitchers. The Cubs won the season series, 4-3, in 2016, and took three of four from San Francisco at Wrigley. The Giants went 42-39 on the road during the regular season. Chicago posted a dominant 57-24 record at home.

The Giants mustered just five hits against the Mets on Wednesday night—in their defense, Noah Syndergaard was brilliant—but 3B Conor Gillaspie (.262, 6 HR, 25 RBI) had the big blow with a three-run homer in the ninth off of closer Jeurys Familia. The Giants probably have the worst lineup of the remaining playoff teams, but Lester will have to be careful with RF Hunter Pence (.289, 13 HR, 57 RBI), C Buster Posey (.288, 14 HR, 80 RBI) and 1B Brandon Belt (.275, 17 HR, 82 RBI). CF Denard Span has gone 8-for-28 with six walks against Lester, and both Pence (3-for-15) and Posey (5-for-16) have homered off him. Cueto faced the Cubs once this season—a little over a month ago—and lost despite allowing just one run in seven innings. For his career, Cueto is 9-8 against the Cubs with a 3.24 ERA. In sever career postseason starts, Cueto is 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA. Cueto will need to go at least seven innings, as the ineffective Giants bullpen blew an astounding 30 games in 2016.

The Cubs have one of the deepest and most imposing lineups in baseball, led by MVP candidate Kris Bryant (.292, 39 HR, 102 RBI) and slugger Anthony Rizzo (.292, 32 RBI, 109 RBI). CF Dexter Fowler (.276, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 13 SB) and 2B Ben Zobrist (.272, 18 HR, 76 RBI) also had solid years for the Cubs. Bryan is 3-for-5 against Cueto, and Rizzo, despite going 3-for-25 with eight strikeouts, has homered off him. Lester faced the Giants twice this season and went 1-1, allowing six earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. For his career, he’s 4-1 against the Giants with a 2.25 ERA. Lester has been superb in the postseason, going 6-6 with a 2.85 ERA in 16 appearances (98 IP).


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