Albertsons Stadium – Boise, ID
Kickoff: Thursday, 10:15 p.m. ET
Line: Boise State -7, Total: 57.5

BYU is #14 Boise State’s largest remaining hurdle on the way to an undefeated regular season.

The BYU Cougars continued their success against a difficult early-season slate of opponents last week, winning their third straight game and moving to 4-3 (5-2 ATS) with a 28-21 double-overtime win at home over Mississippi State (MSST +7.5). After going down by a touchdown in the first and then the second quarter, the Cougars tied the game at 14 with a touchdown early in the fourth. After the teams traded scores in the first overtime, BYU QB Taysom Hill (60.2 CMP%, 1,420 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs) threw a 25-yard touchdown to TE Tanner Balderree (6 catches, 92 yards, TD) on the first play of the second OT. The Cougars then stopped Mississippi State on fourth and nine from the 12-yard line to lock up the win. Meanwhile, in Boise, Boise State held on for dear life in the fourth quarter to survive a frantic comeback bid to beat Colorado State 28-23 (CSU +28). The Broncos remain undefeated on the season (6-0, 2-4 ATS) and move up to No. 14 in the country in the AP poll. They led 28-3 with just over five minutes remaining in the game before somehow giving up three touchdowns in less than 1:30 of gameplay, but effectively ran out the rest of the clock. With its best win being a 31-28 victory over Washington State in early September (WSU +13), and with no ranked teams remaining on the schedule, it’s a virtual certainty that an unbeaten record wouldn’t be enough to propel the Broncos into the playoff. They certainly have plenty to play for, though, as a New Year’s Day game would be a large boost for a mid-major program whose profile was at its largest about a decade ago. In the last five years, home favorites with winning records that went under the total by 28 or more total points over their past three games (BOISE) are 19-47 ATS against teams with winning records. Bryan Harsin is 7-0 OVER as head coach of Boise State when a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

On Friday against the Bulldogs, senior RB Jamaal Williams (162 carries, 942 yards, 10 TDs) set the BYU career rushing record by reaching 3,468 yards. He’s 532 yards away from reaching 4,000 for his career, and 641 away from breaking the BYU single-season record of 1,582. Both seem fully possible, as he’s just over halfway through his schedule (presuming a bowl appearance) and appears to have faced his toughest competition already. He set the school’s single-game rushing record with 282 yards on the ground in a 55-53 shootout win over Toledo (TOL +3) in the first game of the team’s current three-game win streak. His 162 carries and 942 yards are both second in the country, and his 10 touchdowns are tied for fourth. Hill was dominant at quarterback in 2013, but hasn’t quite been able to return to that form after missing most of each of the last two seasons with injuries. He had one of his best games this season against one of the toughest defenses he’s faced in Mississippi State, completing 16-of-28 passes for 165 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, and rushed for 49 yards and a touchdown, which came in the first overtime. He’s rushed for 324 yards on the season—15th in the nation among quarterbacks—and four touchdowns. WRs Nick Kurtz (28 catches, 294 yards, TD), Jonah Trinnaman (19 catches, 225 yards, TD), Colby Pearson (22 catches, 221 yards, 2 TDs) and Moroni-Laulu Pututau (17 catches, 186 yards, 2 TDs) lead the team in receiving. The defense is 67th in the country with 402 yards allowed per game and 52nd with 25.1 points allowed per game. CB Kai Nacua leads the nation with five interceptions, which have come in four separate games. DE Sae Tautu leads the team with 4.5 sacks, and LBs Fred Warner and Butch Pau’u each have 51 total tackles.

Considered by oddsmakers to be far superior to its competition thus far this season, Boise State has been favored by an average of nearly 20 points per game this season. Their average margin of victory isn’t too far below that number at 16, but they’ve covered the spread in only two of their six games. Their quarterback is sophomore Brett Rypien (62.2 CMP%, 1,622 yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs), who entered the season with a fair amount of experience after starting ten games as a freshman last year. His worst game was the close win over Washington State in early September, when he threw all three of his interceptions this season. He’s been outstanding the past two weeks, completing 37-of-52 passes for 598 yards and six touchdowns. Admittedly, most of that production came two weeks ago in a 45-21 win over New Mexico (BOISE -18.5), but he tied his second-best completion percentage of the season against Colorado State at 66.7. He’s second in the Mountain West with a passer rating of 156.6. Running back Jeremy McNichols (150 carries, 775 yards, 11 TDs; 20 catches, 263 yards, 3 TDs) has been excellent as well. He’s ninth in the country in rushing yards, seventh in carries and tied for second in touchdowns with fellow Mountain Westerner Donnel Pumphrey of San Diego State. He’s also sixth nationally in receiving yards and tied for second in receiving touchdowns among running backs. WR Thomas Sperbeck (38 catches, 701 yards, 6 TDs) leads the conference in receiving yards and touchdowns, and WR Cedrick Wilson (23 catches, 432 yards, 5 TDs) is seventh and second, respectively. The defense returned only five starters from last year, and is 48th in the country with 371 yards allowed per game. DT David Moa and DE David McCaskill have six and five sacks, respectively. The defense only has two interceptions as a unit, tied for last in the league.