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Cubs, Dodgers meet in Game 5 Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/20/2016  at  12:23:00 PM
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CHICAGO CUBS (108-61)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (96-75)

First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago Cubs -150, Los Angeles Dodgers +140, Total: 7.0

The Cubs will be looking to take a 3-2 series lead when they face the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Thursday.

After being shutout two games in a row, the Cubs offense finally decided to show up in Game 4. Chicago racked up 13 hits in the game and ended up winning 10-2. The team will be hoping that it saved some offense for this pivotal Game 5 on Thursday. The Dodgers, meanwhile, must be better in all aspects of the game in this one. They did not pitch well on Wednesday and nobody came up with any timely hits. The starters in this contest are set to be LHP Jon Lester (1-0, 0.64 ERA, 8 K in two postseason starts) for Chicago and RHP Kenta Maeda (0-1, 9.00 ERA, 6 K in two postseason starts) for Los Angeles. Maeda has been lousy in the playoffs thus far, but he was very reliable for the Dodgers all season and they will be more than confident with him out there on Thursday. Jon Lester’s teams are, however, 22-3 against the money line versus NL teams with a batting average of .250 or worse over the past two seasons. The Cubs are also 29-12 against the money line when the line is -100 to -150 this season.

Chicago needed a big offensive performance in Game 4 and that is exactly what the team got. Both SS Addison Russell (.138, 1 HR, 2 RBI in postseason) and 1B Anthony Rizzo (.161, 1 HR, 3 RBI in postseason) had really been slumping going into Wednesday night’s game, but Russell went 3-for-5 with a homer and two RBI in that one and Rizzo went 3-for-5 with a homer and three RBI. If the two of them can continue to hit then the Cubs should have no problem winning this series. Rizzo is the most important hitter in this Chicago lineup, so it’s crucial that he carries his momentum into Thursday’s Game 5. Luckily for the Cubs, Jon Lester is on the mound in this big matchup and he has been remarkable throughout the postseason. In Game 1, Lester pitched six innings of one-run ball against this Dodgers team and the Cubs would surely sign up for another outing like that on Thursday. One thing Lester is doing is keeping his pitches in the zone. He has walked just one batter in 14.0 innings of postseason work. If he can continue to pitch with that type of control then the Cubs should have a great shot of winning this one.

If the Dodgers are going to take a 3-2 series lead then Maeda is going to need to pitch the way he did during the regular season and not how he did in his first two postseason appearances. Maeda has not given Los Angeles more than four innings of work in either of his two playoffs starts and that is not going to cut it on Thursday. The Dodgers badly need him to work his way into the sixth innings of this one, as they don’t want to put too much pressure on a bullpen that struggled on Wednesday. Offensively, somebody like 3B Justin Turner (.321, 2 HR, 8 RBI in postseason) is going to need to step it up in this game. Turner is a righty hitter in a lineup full of lefties and that gives him a better chance of getting to Lester on Thursday. He has been on a tear throughout the postseason, but is also 0-for-11 against Lester in his career. Something will have to change in this one and it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers coming away with a win without the help of Turner’s offense.


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