Bryant-Denny Stadium – Tuscaloosa, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -30.0, Total: 55.5

Mississippi State will be looking to pull off a monumental road upset over #1 Alabama on Saturday.

Mississippi State has had a disappointing season, but the team is coming off of its biggest game of the year. The Bulldogs hosted Texas A&M last week and came away with a 35-28 victory as 10-point home underdogs. A&M was considered to be the fourth team in the College Football Playoff up until that game, so it was quite the victory for this Mississippi State team. Alabama, meanwhile, defeated LSU 10-0 as a seven-point road favorite. The Crimson Tide held the Tigers to just 125 yards of total offense, which is wild considering the fact that LSU has Leonard Fournette in the backfield. Alabama has now covered in four straight games coming into this one, and the team is an impressive 7-2 ATS on the season. The Crimson Tide also happen to be 10-2 SU when hosting this Bulldogs team since 1992. Mississippi State is, however, 8-4 ATS in those contests. When the teams met in Starkville last season, the Tide rolled to a 31-6 win as seven-point road favorites. They have every right to be confident this weekend, but Mississippi State should be feeling pretty good as well. The Bulldogs are a remarkable 11-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the past two seasons and they’re also 22-9 ATS after scoring 20 or more points in the first half of two straight games since 1992. WR Calvin Ridley (Knee) is the only significant player that is dealing with an injury coming into this game, but he still has a chance to play on Saturday.

Mississippi State has been incredible offensively over the past three weeks and QB Nick Fitzgerald (1,705 yards, 16 TD, 9 INT) has emerged as a star for the Bulldogs. Over the past two weeks, the sophomore has thrown for seven touchdowns and rushed for four. He has run for over 100 yards in five of the nine games he’s played this year and his ability to use his legs makes this offense very tough to stop. Fitzgerald will, however, need to be careful with the ball on Saturday. He has thrown two interceptions in each of the past two games and has thrown a total of eight picks over the past five games. This Alabama defense is unlike anything he has seen this season, and the Tide will make him pay for any mistakes he makes this weekend. When Fitzgerald does go to the air, he’ll likely be targeting WR Fred Ross (54 rec, 641 yards, 9 TD). Ross is one of the best receivers in the country and he has now caught four touchdown passes over the past three contests. Ross is a very good athlete and he’ll look to use that to his advantage in this one. It will, however, be tough for him to create separation against Alabama’s elite secondary. Defensively, making Jalen Hurts into a pocket passer will be Mississippi State’s top priority. Hurts is at his best when he is able to improvise and use his legs, so the Bulldogs will need to make sure he is trying to beat them as a passer on Saturday.

QB Jalen Hurts (1,685 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT) had a night to forget against LSU last week, as he went just 10-for-19 with 107 yards, no touchdowns and a pick. He did, however, rush for 114 yards and a touchdown in the game. He has now rushed for 90 or more yards in each of the past three games, and he has racked up seven touchdowns on the ground over the past four contests. Look for Hurts to have no trouble running all over this Mississippi State team, and don’t be surprised if he has an efficient day throwing the ball either. This is the worst defense he has faced since playing against Kentucky on Oct. 1 and he knows he has to take advantage. Defensively, the Tide are in a class of their own this year. There are plenty of good defenses in the nation, but Alabama has to face top-tier competition on a weekly basis and nobody has gotten the best of the Tide just yet. They’ll be aggressive in getting after Fitzgerald on Saturday and should be able to force a number of turnovers on their way to a blowout win.