MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -1.5, Total: 49

The Colts will try to keep pace in a tight AFC South race with a win over the Jets on Monday night.

The Colts floundered without their starting quarterback on Thanksgiving night, losing 28-7 at home to the Steelers (PIT -8) as Andrew Luck sat out with a concussion. At 5-6 (5-5-1 ATS), Indianapolis is in third place—but only one game out of first—in the AFC South. The Colts were certainly outplayed but were not dominated, as they were outgained 369 yards to 310. Their two turnovers (and zero takeaways) certainly contributed to their undoing. They made it 14-7 with a touchdown less than two minutes into the second half, but were unable to get anything going from there. They’re presented with an excellent opportunity to rebound this week in a Monday night matchup on the road with the 3-8 New York Jets (4-5-2 ATS). The Jets nearly got their biggest win of the season in the Meadowlands last week against the hated Patriots, but instead faltered late to lose 22-17 (NYJ +9), their third straight loss. They took a 10-0 lead on the first play of the second quarter and, after giving up 13 straight points, regained the lead in the fourth. A nine-play, 83-yard Patriots drive that culminated in a touchdown with just under two minutes remaining, however, did them in. The Pats outgained them 377 yards to 333. In the last five seasons, home teams with losing records that have lost four or five of their last six games (NYJ) are 103-59 Under in games played in the second half of the season. Andrew Luck is 23-13 ATS in his career in games where the total is between 46 and 53. Both Luck and Indy WR T.Y. Hilton are expected to play on Monday night. C Nick Mangold could be back for the Jets after missing four games with an injury. S Calvin Pryor and DT Steve McClendon are also questionable to play.

The Colts will certainly feel much better about their chances against the Jets if Luck (62.9 CMP%, 2,827 yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs) is the one under center on Monday night. While backup Scott Tolzien had some success in the air against the Steelers, completing 22 of 36 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown, he likely did more harm than good with two interceptions and did not bring nearly the same level of playmaking ability to the field that Luck does. Luck is 10th in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.54), eighth in yards per game (283) and 12th in touchdown passes. Thanks to a poorly constructed offensive line, he has continued what feels like an annual tradition of being the most-sacked QB in the league. He’s been brought down a league-high 35 times despite having missed a game. In his most recent game, he completed 15 of 28 passes for 262 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Hilton (60 catches, 942 yards, 5 TDs) is by far his most talented target, and he showed it in that Tennessee game with five catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. He’s fifth in the NFL in receiving yards. There’s a significant drop-off in production out wide after him, as TEs Jack Doyle (39 catches, 411 yards, 4 TDs) and Dwayne Allen (24 catches, 256 yards, 2 TDs) are two of the team’s top four receivers. WR Phillip Dorsett (24 catches, 395 yards, TD) is third, and WR Donte Moncrief (24 catches, 251 yards, 5 TDs in five complete games) has shown a knack for reaching the end zone in limited action. RB Frank Gore (178 carries, 670 yards, 4 TDs; 29 catches, 204 yards, 3 TDs) leads an uninspiring rushing attack that is 25th in the league with 95.4 yards per game, and 23rd with 3.9 yards per carry. The defense is third worst in the league with 395.0 yards allowed per game. CB Darius Butler has two interceptions for a unit that is tied for 29th in the NFL with eight takeaways.

Regardless of what happens from here on out, it feels like the narrative has been established that Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (57.6 CMP%, 2,252 yards, 10 TDs, 13 INTs) has been the worst quarterback of the 2016 NFL season. The man who bet on himself with a one-year contract in the offseason is 26th in the league in yards per attempt (6.82), 30th in completion percentage and 31st in passer rating (72.2). He joins the likes of Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert as passers with TD-INT ratios of less than 1.0. Like Keenum and Gabbert, Fitzpatrick has been benched at points this year. He’ll probably be the guy for the rest of the season, though, especially after nearly leading the Jets to a win over New England. He completed 22 of 32 passes for 269 yards, two touchdowns and, critically, no interceptions in the narrow defeat. WR Quincy Enunwa (43 catches, 643 yards, 2 TDs) was his best receiver in that game, pulling in five balls for 109 yards and a touchdown. He’s come out of virtually nowhere to be a key cog in the Jets offense this season. While he had topped 90 yards twice, last Sunday’s game was his first 100-yard performance of the year. The team’s leading receiver, WR Brandon Marshall (49 catches, 668 yards, 3 TDs), played well, too, making six catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. It makes sense that both of those playing well correlates with good days from Fitzpatrick, as the Jets only barely have another receiver that’s topped 300 yards: WR Robbie Anderson (24 catches, 304 yards). After those three, the team’s next leading receivers are RBs Bilal Powell (48 carries, 308 yards, TD; 47 catches, 247 yards, TD) and Matt Forte (202 carries, 759 yards, 7 TDs; 26 catches, 202 yards, TD). They form one of the more talented and versatile RB duos in the league, and the Jets are 12th in the league with a rushing attack that averages 111.3 yards per game. On defense, the Jets rank 12th, allowing 348.7 yards per game. Their run defense, which allows 85.9 yards per game, is particularly stout.