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#10 Wisconsin hosts Indiana on Sunday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/4/2017  at  3:24:00 PM
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INDIANA HOOSIERS (15-8)

WISCONSIN BADGERS (19-3)

Kohl Center – Madison, WI
Tip-off: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Line: N/A

#10 Wisconsin looks for their seventh straight win as they host hobbled Indiana on Sunday.

Coach Greg Gard’s Badgers are trending in the right direction in the heart of conference play, as they’ve won seven straight and 16 of their last 17 games (dating to Nov. 21). The Badgers are a perfect 12-0 (7-2 ATS) this season in the Kohl Center, where they welcome an Indiana team possibly without leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. (17.6 PPG) in addition to not having O.G. Anunoby (11.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 56% FG), who’s out for the season. Blackmon Jr. suffered a “lower leg” injury and was deemed “out indefinitely” by Coach Tom Crean after a 90-60 defeat at Michigan on Nov. 26. Blackmon has proceeded to miss a loss at Northwestern and most recently the Hoosiers’ thrilling triple-overtime home win over Penn State. Blackmon Jr’s MRI was negative, however, and he might return for Sunday’s tilt against the Badgers. Without Blackmon Jr., the Hoosiers struggled on offense against Northwestern but were able to squeak by Penn State (110-102, IU -5.5) hitting a season-high in points scored. Indiana is 1-4 (0-5 ATS) on the road this season. Wisconsin is 3-3 ATS during their six-game streak (11-8 ATS on the season). The Badgers will have plenty of rest, not having played since Tuesday at Illinois (57-43, WI -7). Prior to that, Wisconsin collected home wins over Rutgers (61-54, WI -16.5) and Penn State (82-55, WI -15). The Badgers have won four of the last five from the Hoosiers, including their first matchup this season; a road win in Assembly Hall that kicked off Big Ten play on Jan. 3 (75-68, PK). While Wisconsin allowed Indiana to shoot 53% FG in that contest, they turned 13 Hoosiers turnovers into 23 points to put the game out of reach. Wisconsin is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two programs. In other trends between the Hoosiers and Badgers, the underdog is 6-2 ATS over the last eight games, while the OVER is 6-2 the last eight times these two have played in Wisconsin.

Visiting Indiana will have to hope that some of the offensive magic that carried the Hoosiers over Penn State on Thursday stays with them on the flight to Madison. Wisconsin boasts the best scoring defense in the Big Ten (59.8 PPG allowed, 4th in NCAA). Indiana got career games at the perfect time from C Thomas Bryant (13.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG) and G Josh Newkirk (8 PPG, 3.5 APG), as that duo combined for 58 points (31 and 27, respectively) to outlast Penn State on Wednesday to overcome the absence of Blackmon Jr. and Anunoby. While Newkirk’s outburst was truly out of left field (nine straight single-digit efforts before Wednesday night), the Indiana faithful have been waiting for the 6’10” Bryant to dominate as he had since stepping foot on campus last year. Bryant has asserted himself in Blackmon Jr.’s absence (two straight 20+ point double-doubles, 20-31 FG) and Coach Crean needs to find a way to keep his sophomore center aggressive even when Blackmon Jr. returns. Bryant only had six points and three rebounds on five shot attempts in Indiana’s loss to Wisconsin on Jan. 3. G Robert Johnson (14.5 PPG, 49.6% FG, 42.3% 3PT) has been Indiana’s most consistent player this season, reliably scoring in double-figures in every game this season but one (nine points in that game). Johnson stepped up for 27 big points on Wednesday (11-for-17 FG) in 50 minutes. The Hoosiers played Wisconsin tough in their first meeting, but turnovers got the best of them. That said, Indiana was nationally ranked at the time and at full strength. Shorthanded and in Madison, the Hoosiers will have to ride the strength of Bryant in the paint and a consistent barrage of threes (38.9% 3PT, 29th in NCAA), if they want to pull off an unlikely upset.

Wisconsin is playing typical Badgers basketball, clicking on all cylinders as they grind opponents into loss after loss. The Badgers have only allowed one Big Ten opponent to score more than 70 points against them, and have kept their last three opponents under 56 points. Wisconsin’s defensive jewel came in Tuesday evenings win at Illinois where they held the Illini to 43 total points on sub-30% shooting from the field and beyond the arc. Coach Gard’s Badgers still value every possession (just like his predecessor, Coach Bo Ryan), committing only 15.3 fouls per game (7th in NCAA) and 11.2 turnovers per game (32nd in NCAA), while sporting a 1.32 assist-to-turnover rate (28th in NCAA). Wisconsin’s offense will never be confused with high-octane (75 PPG, 121st in NCAA), but they know their strengths (53.8% 2PT FG, 36th in NCAA). Wisconsin is led by the trio of F Ethan Happ (14.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 60.7% FG), G Bronson Koenig (14.1 PPG, 89.2% FT) and F Nigel Hayes (13.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG). The sophomore, Happ, has been especially locked-in over the past few weeks, setting and then eclipsing his career highs with 28 points and 32 points against Minnesota and Rutgers all in a seven day period. Happ ranks second in the conference in rebounding and third in field goal percentage. Koenig and Hayes, however, have struggled recently. Koenig is 6-of-26 from the field (3-for-16 3PT) over his last two games, while Hayes has only put up 27 points over his last three. Indiana’s soft defense (157th in NCAA) should provide some relief for Koenig’s struggles.


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