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D'backs, Dodgers meet in LA Tuesday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 7/4/2017  at  10:24:00 AM
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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (52-31)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (55-29)

First pitch: Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona +235, Los Angeles -270, Total: 7.0

The Diamondbacks will be going for their third straight win when they take on the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Tuesday.

The Diamondbacks have won two straight games heading into Independence Day, and those two victories came against the Rockies last series. Arizona got some good starting pitching in that set, as the team allowed just five earned runs in the two wins against the Rockies. Colorado has as explosive an offense as any, so it was a good sign for the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have won three of their past four coming into this game. They most recently lost the final game of a three-game set to the Padres, falling 5-3 as a favorite of -210. Still, they should be able to forget that rather quickly. This is one of the best teams in baseball, as proven by the fact that they have the second-best record in MLB. On the mound in this game will be a pair of lefties, as LHP Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.76 ERA, 78 K) will be starting for Arizona against Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw. The advantage obviously leans towards the Dodgers here, but Kershaw has been a bit more hittable this season. Kershaw is also, however, an absurd 22-1 against the money line (Team’s record) versus teams who strand 6.9 or fewer base runners per game over the past two seasons.

The Diamondbacks are playing well right now, but they’ll need a good performance from Corbin in order to win this game. Corbin has been really good for the Diamondbacks lately, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts. Corbin also pitched at least six innings in all three of those games. It’d be big if he can turn in a performance like those ones, but the Diamondbacks strongly prefer that he allows fewer than two runs here. While that is unrealistic to ask of somebody that is not your ace, that has to be the goal against a Dodgers team with Kershaw on the mound. Offensively, the Diamondbacks need some guys to step it up in this one. The two most likely to do that are 1B Paul Goldschmidt (.316 BA, 19 HR, 66 RBI) and 3B Jake Lamb (.282 BA, 18 HR, 65 RBI). Both of them have the disadvantage of being a lefty hitter against Kershaw, but they are still the two most dangerous bats in this lineup. It’s hard to imagine Arizona winning without them producing.

After allowing six earned runs in a start against the Mets on Jun. 19, Clayton Kershaw has allowed zero earned runs in his last 13 innings of work. Kershaw struck out 20 batters over those two starts, and it’s a huge plus that he did not allow a homer in either game. He had been having issues with that in recent games, but he seems to have found a way to correct those problems. It would not be shocking to see him finish with a 2.00 ERA or better now. Offensively, a lot of guys on this Dodgers team are capable of driving in runs here. The ones to truly keep an eye on are, however, OF Cody Bellinger (.260 BA, 24 HR, 56 RBI) and 3B Justin Turner (.382 BA, 7 HR, 31 RBI). Bellinger is one of the best young hitters in the game, and he is capable of going yard whenever he is at the plate. Turner, meanwhile, is a hitting machine and should be able to get on base at least once here.


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