SDCCU Stadium – San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Washington State -3, Total: 45

Mark Dantonio and the Spartans look to cap a bounce-back year with a bowl victory.

A 3-9 finish last year was an obvious aberration for a consistently strong Michigan State program, but a turnaround to 9-3 and a Holiday Bowl bid is impressive regardless. That kind of down year can have lasting psychological effects on a team, but in this instance that was certainly not the case. The Spartans suffered big losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State, and a close one to Northwestern, but also came up big with victories over tough Big 10 opponents like Iowa, Michigan and Penn State. Their Holiday Bowl opponent is the Washington State Cougars, Mike Leach's burgeoning Air Raid project out west. Leach had his best season yet at Wazzu, with the Cougs reaching as high as No. 8 in the AP Poll and getting W’s over ranked USC and Stanford teams. While their season ended with a blowout loss to rival Washington, they should be eager for their first 10-win season since 2003. Over the last five seasons, teams that allowed at least 6.25 yards per play in their previous game (WSU) are 29-64 against spreads between +3 and -3 when playing teams that outgained their opponents by at least 125 total yards in their previous game (MSU). Over the last 10 seasons, though, teams averaging between 21-28 PPG (MSU) are 7-27 against spreads between +3 and -3 when playing non-conference opponents who are averaging between 28-34 PPG (WSU) after seven games. In mid-December, top Wazzu WR Tavares Martin Jr. was dismissed from the team and will therefore obviously miss the Holiday Bowl. And second-leading receiver Isaiah Johnson-Mack was granted release for transfer earlier in the month, so the Cougars figure to be a little thin at wideout.

Martin and Johnson-Mack had 831 and 555 yards for Wazzu, respectively. But it's not like Martin is Michael Crabtree or something, and Leach always has a deep bench of eager pass-catchers ready to go. Seven other Cougars have at least 281 receiving yards on the season. Freshman WR Davontavean Martin led the wideouts with five catches for 70 yards and a score in a slow offensive day against Washington, and WR Dezmon Patmon had 60 yards in that game. WR Renard Bell, another freshman, is close to Johnson-Mack statistically with 525 yards this season. Much of that came early in the year, though, as he had three 100-yard games in September. Whoever's catching passes, they'll have an elite signal-caller throwing to them in QB Luke Falk. Falk will finish his career as a Cougar as easily the program's all-time leading passer, and he was briefly in the Heisman conversation earlier this year when the team was still undefeated. On the whole, though, it's been statistically his worst full season as a starter. His yardage, completion percentage and touchdowns are down from each of the last two years, while his interceptions and yardage are up. And despite throwing six interceptions in his last three games, he has also topped 300 yards in each of them—something he failed to do in the four games prior. RBs Jamal Morrow and James Williams are both good runners and excellent pass-catchers, and you can expect Falk to turn to them frequently in the passing game with his top wideouts gone.

The Spartans have a modest offense, one that ranked eighth in yardage out of 14 in the not-so-explosive Big Ten. Sophomore QB Brian Lewerke runs the show, and while he completed under 60% of his passes, his 17-7 TD-INT ratio accurately represents his abilities to commandeer a ball-control offense. He obviously didn't play well in a 48-3 loss to Ohio State, and he had a comically bad passing line a week later in a snowy 17-7 win over Maryland: 2-of-14 for 20 yards. But he also ran for 63 yards and a score on only five carries, and then threw for 222 yards and a touchdown a week later in a blowout win at Rutgers. He's no Khalil Tate, obviously, but he may find that he can do proportionally more damage on the ground against this Wazzu defense than he can through the air. WR Felton Davis III is his leading receiver and has got eight of his touchdown passes, while no other Spartan has more than two. After huge games against Northwestern and Penn State, Davis oddly went catchless in muted offensive performances against Ohio State and Maryland. But he bounced back with six catches for 72 yards against Rutgers, and will certainly remain Lewerke's preferred target out in San Diego. WRs Darrell Stewart Jr. and Cody White also have over 400 receiving yards on the season. RB L.J. Scott isn't the superstar that some expected he would turn into, but he showed workhorse capability in the blizzard against Maryland with 147 bruising yards and a touchdown on 29 carries. If the Spartans get out to a lead on the Cougars, expect him to top 20 carries as Dantonio looks to milk the clock.