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Portland jockeys for playoff positioning visiting Utah
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 4/7/2011  at  11:03:00 AM
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PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (45-33)

at UTAH JAZZ (37-41)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -4.5, Total: 188

The Blazers clinched a playoff berth earlier in the week and look to win the season series against the hurting Jazz.

With Houston losing to Sacramento on Tuesday, Portland clinched its third consecutive playoff berth. Unfortunately on that same day, the Blazers got beat at home 108-87 by a Golden State team that was 9-30 on the road. Portland is tied with New Orleans for sixth place in the Western Conference and only one game ahead of eighth-place Memphis. The No. 6 seed could be very important to avoid playing powerhouses San Antonio and Los Angeles in the first round. LaMarcus Aldridge (21.9 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has emerged as the leader and catalyst of this Trail Blazers team. Aldridge is averaging 22.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG in his past four games, and 25.7 PPG in three meetings with Utah this season. Gerald Wallace (15.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) has been a nice mid-season pickup, averaging 18.6 PPG on 55.1% FG in his past 10 games.

Utah broke its season-long, eight-game losing skid with a surprising 86-85 road victory Tuesday against the Lakers. The Jazz only dressed nine players, and for Thursday night’s game, it appears that Devin Harris (hamstring), Ronnie Price (calf), Raja Bell (foot) and Andrei Kirilenko (knee) will all be sidelinded. Kyrylo Fesenko (thumb) and Francisco Elson (knee) are both questionable to play. Under interim coach Tyrone Corbin, Utah is 6-18, losing four straight and 11 of 14 at home. Losing Hall-of-Fame coach Jerry Sloan was a big blow and the additional blow of Deron Williams being traded has really knocked this team out. One bright spot has been the play of Al Jefferson (18.8 PPG, 9.7 RPG) who has 14.7 PPG on 53% FG and 11.0 RPG in three meetings with the Blazers this season.

Portland is only 17-18 ATS in road games and 7-7 ATS versus division opponents. The Blazers have been decent beating bad teams though, going 17-14 ATS against below-.500 clubs. In home games this year, Utah is a measly 15-24 ATS (39%) and 17-30 ATS (36%) against West opponents. The Jazz are 8-20 ATS (29%) in their past 28 home games and in the past 13 meetings between the two teams, the favorite is 10-3 ATS. With a bunch of injuries and a lost season, the Jazz will lose again at home in a double-digit Portland victory. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the Blazers.

Play Against - Underdogs (UTAH) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball-handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (70-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +37 units. Rating = 3*).

UTAH is 2-14 ATS (12.5%, -13.4 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. The average score was UTAH 96.3, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 3*).

Eight of the past 11 meetings in this series have finished Over the total, and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also supports playing the Over.

UTAH is 27-9 OVER (75.0%, +17.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UTAH 106.6, OPPONENT 106.5 - (Rating = 3*).


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