Tip-off: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2.5, Total: 206.5

The Mavericks find themselves in a tight race for the second seed in the Western Conference and face a Rockets team who might be without some key players.

Dallas is tied with the Lakers for second place and both teams are one game ahead of Oklahoma City. Dallas lost four in a row before winning its last two over the Clippers and Suns. Luckily for the Mavericks, the Lakers have dropped five straight games, and most recently were defeated by the Thunder 120-106 on Sunday. After a scuffle during a timeout in Friday’s game, J.J. Barea (9.5 PPG) and Jason Terry (15.7 PPG) resolved their differences and combined for 32 points off the bench in Sunday’s 115-90 win over the Suns. Dallas has won all three games versus Houston this season and looks to sweep the season series for the first time since 2002-2003.

Houston finds itself on the outside looking in on the playoffs, but will still play hard for veteran coach Rick Adelman who recently just won his 944th career game to move into eighth on the all-time list. Luis Scola (18.3 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (13.5 PPG) sat out Saturday’s 99-78 victory over the Clippers, and both players are doubtful for Monday’s game. This will put more pressure on leading scorer Kevin Martin (23.4 PPG) to have a high-scoring effort for the Rockets to keep up with the high-powered Mavs. In the season series versus Dallas, Martin has averaged 20.3 PPG, but shot just 37.8 percent from the floor. Houston also needs Chuck Hayes (7.9 PPG 8.0 RPG) to play as he did Saturday when he recorded a double-double by dropping 12 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.

Dallas has been great on the road at 24-16 ATS, and has also played well in back-to-back games (12-7 ATS). Dallas, which loves a shootout, is 24-17 ATS against teams that score 99.0 PPG or more. Houston has not been hard to beat at home (19-20 ATS) and only 18-22 ATS against teams with winning records. The Rockets are 22-18 when revenging a loss against an opponent, but with Scola and Lowry likely out, Dallas should win comfortably with a lot to play for. The FoxSheets provide two more trends favoring the Mavericks:

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after a blowout win by 20 points or more. (95-53 since 1996.) (64.2%, +36.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (58-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.2%, +23.9 units. Rating = 2*).