Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 4 – Memphis leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -1.5, Total: 188.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have gone from never winning a playoff game to leading 2-1 in the series with the NBA’s best San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs looked dominant for most of the year and wound up with the best record in the NBA. The problem is that as of late, San Antonio can’t stay healthy. Manu Ginobili (17.4 PPG) still has a lingering right elbow injury and Antonio McDyess (5.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) hurt his neck in Saturday’s 91-88 loss but will try to play on Monday. The Spurs need their point guard Tony Parker (17.5 PPG) to play better after only scoring 28 points combined the past two games and shooting 39% from the field. Tim Duncan (13.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) may be getting old, but he definitely knows what to do when playoff time comes around. Duncan is averaging a double-double (15.0 PPG 11.3 RPG) in the series and will have to lead his team down the stretch.

The Grizzlies came into the series with the Spurs with zero all-time playoff wins. Memphis ended that quickly by winning a thrilling Game 1, 101-98. Six days later the Grizz won their first home playoff game, beating San Antonio 91-88 on Saturday. In Saturday’s win, Zach Randolph (20.3 PPG) had 25 points and hit a clinching three-pointer with 41.9 seconds on the clock. Marc Gasol (11.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG) has been playing better than brother Pau in the series, averaging 17.6 PPG and 11.6 RPG. If Memphis can win Game 4 at home and go up 3-1, it will put the pressure on a Spurs team that already knows they are “supposed” to win. The Grizzlies are trying to become only the fourth No. 8 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed.

San Antonio has been good on the road this year going 26-15 ATS, but as a favorite are only 33-30 ATS. The Spurs have lost eight straight games against the spread to Memphis and are 4-9 ATS the last three years in the first round of the playoffs. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, love being the underdog in which they are 28-11 ATS. Memphis also has dominated teams in its division (15-4 ATS) and is 31-14 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Grizzlies also wouldn’t mind a shootout where they are 31-14 ATS against teams that score 99.0 PPG or more. I believe the Spurs are the better team, but with momentum and a home crowd at their side, I like Memphis to win in an extremely back-and-forth, close game. The FoxSheets many trends supporting the Grizzlies including these two highly-rated ones:

MEMPHIS is 13-2 ATS (86.7%, +10.8 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 98.1, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a close loss vs. opponent of 3 points or less, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival. (24-5 since 1996.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend supports the Over on Monday night.

Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MEMPHIS) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. (35-8 since 1996.) (81.4%, +26.2 units. Rating = 4*).