Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 5 – Chicago leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -9.5, Total: 187

A sprained ankle is not going to keep Derrick Rose out of Game 5, but the Pacers would love to take him out of the game themselves as they did Saturday with smothering defense.

The Indiana Pacers have been tough all series and were finally rewarded Saturday with an 89-84 win over the Bulls. Danny Granger (22.0 PPG, 49% FG in series) led the way with 24 points and had four big free throws in the final 14.1 seconds. Paul George played terrific defense and held Derrick Rose to 15 points on 6-of-22 shooting. Roy Hibbert (10.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG in series) also stepped up big with 16 points and 10 rebounds to give the Pacers a solid inside presence. Ex-UConn guard A.J. Price (8.8 PPG, 6-of-13 threes in series) provided a nice spark off the bench scoring 10 points to spell a banged-up Darren Collison. Indiana has not been good on the road this year (13-30 SU) but hope to take advantage of a hobbled Rose and steal a game at the United Center.

The Bulls are up 3-1 in the series but have won those three games by a combined 15 points. Derrick Rose (28.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.3 APG in series) has had a rough past two games, averaging 19.0 PPG, but shooting 25% from the field. Rose and Chicago need to get back to driving the ball to the hoop and not settling for long-range jump shots. In the Saturday 89-84 loss, the Bulls went 3-for-20 from three-point land and had zero fast-break points. Joakim Noah (11.5 PPG, 11.3 RPG in series) played well on Saturday, scoring 21 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. If the game comes down to the wire again Tuesday, the Bulls will be hoping for a better shot than they got from Carlos Boozer on Saturday, who on a broken play was forced to take a long-range three and missed.

Indiana is 3-1 ATS in the series but just 21-25 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pacers are 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games at the United Center. With that said, Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games. One thing Chicago has done very well is bounce back after upset losses, going 10-3 ATS. I expect a hard-fought game that Chicago eventually wins, but I like Indiana to cover the spread getting a bundle of points. The FoxSheets show two more trends supporting the Pacers:

INDIANA is 23-8 ATS (74.2%, +14.2 Units) vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The average score was INDIANA 94.0, OPPONENT 95.5 - (Rating = 1*).

CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (25.0%, -13.8 Units) in home games as a No. 1 seed in the playoffs since 1996. The average score was CHICAGO 93.2, OPPONENT 85.5.