Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 5 – Memphis leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -6.5, Total: 189

Not many would have thought that going into Game 5 at San Antonio would mean the Spurs defending their season down 3-1 to eighth-seeded Memphis. Like they always say, this is why they play the games.

The Grizzlies looked like the No. 1 seed in Monday’s Game 4, beating the Spurs 104-86 behind an energetic FedEx Forum crowd. Memphis pummeled the Spurs 30-15 in the third quarter and never looked back. The Grizz had a very balanced attack Monday with not one player scoring over 15 points. Mike Conley (14.3 PPG in series) led the way with 15 points and seven assists. Darrell Arthur (9.0 PPG in series) was a sparkplug off the bench, scoring 14 points on 7-of-10 shooting which included a high-rising alley-oop dunk following a huge block by Arthur. Memphis led the league in forced turnovers with 16.5 per game and did just that in Game 4 by forcing 17 turnovers which resulted in 20 points. Zach Randolph (18.0 PPG in series) and Marc Gasol (15.5 PPG in series) need to keep up their relentless play down low to keep the pressure on the aging frontcourt of the Spurs.

The Spurs know that they are the team that is “supposed” to win with a Western Conference-best 61 regular-season victories. Tim Duncan (12.8 PPG in series) didn’t have one of his most enjoyable birthdays by only scoring six points which ended in the 18-point defeat. A more depressing note may be that it was Duncan’s 35th birthday and the end is nearing on the Hall-of-Fame forward’s career. Tony Parker (17.8 PPG in series) had a nice game Monday, scoring 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting, but the rest of the big three did not play as well. Manu Ginobili (18.0 PPG in series) only had 14 points alongside Duncan’s six. The Spurs will need their stars to play like they are capable of in order to turn this series around.

Memphis has been terrific against the spread all year with a 56-29 ATS record (66%) and has been almost unstoppable against division opponents (16-4 ATS). The Grizzlies love being the underdog (29-11 ATS, 73%) and are also 14-2 ATS coming off an upset win as an underdog. Memphis also has won nine in a row against the spread versus the Spurs. San Antonio hasn’t been that great defending its home court with a 19-23 ATS record. The Spurs are 4-14 ATS in the playoffs over the last three years and 7-13 ATS versus division opponents this year. All the trends and momentum are pointing towards Memphis who I think will battle closely with the Spurs and cover getting the 6.5 points. The FoxSheets show three more trends siding with the Grizzlies on Wednesday.

MEMPHIS is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 98.1, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. (44-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.7%, +20.9 units. Rating = 1*).

MEMPHIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 100.5, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 1*).