Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 6 – Dallas leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -4.5, Total: 182

Home-court advantage has been key in the Mavericks-Blazers first-round series with no team winning on the road. The series shifts to Portland on Thursday night, and the Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 games at the noisy Rose Garden.

Dallas is looking for its first win in Portland this year where it is 0-4. Luckily Dallas is up 3-2 in the series after an impressive 93-82 home win on Monday. The Mavs recorded 20 offensive rebounds and Tyson Chandler grabbed 13 of them. Chandler (6.0 PPG 10.0 RPG in series) finished with 14 points and 20 rebounds on only four field-goal attempts. Dirk Nowitzki has been great all series long, averaging 26.2 PPG and shooting 50 percent from behind the arc. Dallas’ play often reflects how Nowitzki is playing. In the three victories, Nowitzki is averaging 28.6 PPG, but that drops to 22.5 PPG in the two defeats. Jason Kidd also spread the ball very well in Game 5 by dropping 14 assists and getting everyone involved.

Portland loves to play at its rambunctious and energetic home court. The Blazers were 30-11 at the Rose Garden during the regular season compared to 18-23 on the road. The home team has won nine in a row in this matchup over the past two years. Portland would love a spark off the bench like it received from Brandon Roy in Game 4 when he scored 18 points in the fourth quarter and led the Trail Blazers back from 23 points down. Roy (9.4 PPG in series) finished with 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting in that contest. Game 5 was a different story for Roy who only scored five points on 2-of-7 shooting from the field. He is an important part of Portland’s offense and must get in a rhythm and play well. The Blazers’ new leader, LaMarcus Aldridge (20.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG in series), will have to battle down low with a tough defender Tyson Chandler. Aldridge only managed 12 points in the 93-82 defeat Monday.

Dallas has been good against the spread on the road notching a 27-16 ATS record (63%) this season. Even with the series at 3-2, the Mavs are 5-0 ATS in the series with nine straight ATS victories overall. Dallas is also 15-8 ATS (65%) against Northwest Division opponents. Portland, who is 24-18 ATS (57%) at home, is a surprising 3-10 ATS when being favored by 3.5 to 6 points. The Blazers have been hot as of late at home though, going 9-4 ATS in their past 13 home games. I think the trend of the home team winning will continue, and I like Portland to win in a close game that may come down to some free throws at the end in order to cover the four points.

Some more FoxSheets trends that lean toward the Blazers include:

Play Against - Underdogs (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball-handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (54-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +26.5 units. Rating = 2*).

PORTLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. The average score was PORTLAND 103.1, OPPONENT 90.7 - (Rating = 1*).

Nate McMillan is 50-32 ATS (61.0%, +14.8 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points as the coach of PORTLAND. The average score was PORTLAND 92.2, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 0*).