Western Conference Playoffs – Second Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -9.5, Total: 178

The Hawks look to steal Game 1 at the United Center, but that won’t be easy without their point guard and leader Kirk Hinrich.

Hinrich (10.2 PPG, 50% FG in playoffs) will likely miss the series against the Bulls with a hamstring strain. In his absence, Jeff Teague will have to step up (2.5 PPG in playoffs) even though he only played a total of 10 minutes in the previous series. Atlanta has received a nice scoring burst from veteran gunner Jamal Crawford. He averaged 14.2 PPG in the regular season, but is scoring 20.0 PPG in the playoffs including is 46% shooting from downtown. Crawford has never been known for his defense, but must use his lanky body to contain the explosive Derrick Rose. Joe Johnson (18.0 PPG) was Atlanta’s leading scorer during the regular season and must have a good series to give the Hawks any shot against the league’s best Bulls.

The Bulls had a harder time than expected with the Indiana Pacers before finishing them off in five games. Chicago’s leader Derrick Rose had a fantastic series averaging 27.6 PPG and 6.2 assists. Rose started out the series scoring 39 in Game 1 and 36 in Game 2 before slowing down in the next three contests. Rose could definitely use some help from Carlos Boozer who only averaged 10.0 PPG during the Pacers series. Boozer is considered questionable for Monday’s contest with a turf toe injury. With Boozer slowed down if not out, Joakim Noah will have to step up big and contribute more than the 12.0 PPG he averaged against Indiana. Noah is a good defender and rebounder (10.6 RPG in postseason), but will also have to supply some scoring if Boozer’s toe keeps him off the court.

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in the playoffs this year, but only 21-19 ATS for the year as an underdog. The Hawks are also average on the road (23-21 ATS), but decent against Central Division opponents (11-7 ATS). Chicago is 8-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5-to-9 points and 25-18 ATS (58%) in home games overall. Head-to-head, Atlanta has won seven out of the last 10 against the spread. I think the Bulls will win this game but with Boozer likely out, Atlanta will keep it close enough to cover getting 9.5 points.

The FoxSheets also supports the Hawks with this trend:

ATLANTA is 33-18 ATS (64.7%, +13.2 Units) after a combined score of 175 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 97.2, OPPONENT 94.4.