Western Conference Playoffs – Second Round
Game 2 – Memphis leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Memphis -6.5, Total: 196.5

Oklahoma City looks to get back on track at home against the surging eighth-seeded Grizzlies.

Memphis jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the series with an impressive 114-101 road win Sunday. The Grizzlies dominated the paint by scoring 52 points against solid big men such as Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. Zach Randolph (23.3 PPG in playoffs) and Marc Gasol (15.0 PPG in postseason) combined for 54 points and 23 rebounds. The team also forced 18 turnovers, which led to 23 points. In the regular season, Gasol and Randolph only scored 20 points in the same game once but managed to complete the task Sunday in Game 1. The young point guard Mike Conley (14.4 PPG in playoffs) has really done some maturing during the playoffs. The 23-year-old, first-round pick has handled the offense nicely and added 15 points with seven assists Sunday. If Memphis keeps dominating the paint and forcing turnovers, we could have a short series in favor of the underdog Grizzlies.

The Thunder may have been thinking about their next-round matchup against Los Angeles or Dallas and forgot to focus on the eighth-seeded Grizzlies. Oklahoma City was outscored by 48 points in the paint, had 14 more turnovers, and 14 less assists than Memphis. The Thunder won’t be winning any games if they keep up their current play. Kevin Durant (32.5 PPG in playoffs) did all he could Sunday, scoring 33 points on 11-of-21 shooting. Russell Westbrook (24.7 PPG in postseason) also chipped in 29 points, but shot 9-for-23 from the floor. The guard play wasn’t the problem for the Thunder, it was the battle in the paint that they got severely beaten at. Kendrick Perkins (4.8 PPG in playoffs) only scored two points on 1-of-3 shooting and was dominated by Zach Randolph. The reason the Thunder traded for Perkins was to protect the paint, so he must start doing just that.

Memphis loves being the underdog where it is 30-12 ATS (71%) and 14-3 ATS coming off an upset win. The Grizzlies are also 15-3 ATS against Northwest Division opponents and 34-15 ATS (69%) against teams with a winning record. The Thunder are only 29-30 ATS as a favorite and 21-22 ATS in home games. One positive is that Oklahoma City is 20-14 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent. I think the Thunder will come out playing very physical and win by a close margin. With that said, I like Memphis to keep up its ATS heroics and cover once again. Some more FoxSheets trends that pick the Grizzlies to cover include:

MEMPHIS is 31-11 ATS (73.8%, +18.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 101.0, OPPONENT 99.3 - (Rating = 4*).

MEMPHIS is 37-15 ATS (71.2%, +20.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 102.7, OPPONENT 101.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games. (45-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.2%, +21.9 units. Rating = 2*).