NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 2 – Atlanta leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -8.5, Total: 180

The Bulls didn’t look like a team that had the league MVP and the Coach of the Year on their side Monday when they lost 103-95 to the Hawks. Atlanta looks to win again Wednesday night and take a dominant 2-0 lead back to Philips Arena.

The Hawks didn’t cry over spilled milk when they found out their veteran point guard Kirk Hinrich (10.2 PPG in playoffs) will most likely be out for the whole series with a hamstring injury. Jeff Teague (5.0 PPG in playoffs) stepped up into the starting role and played fantastic defense on the recently announced league MVP, Derrick Rose. Teague also chipped in 10 points and five assists. Jamal Crawford has been fantastic in the playoffs (20.7 PPG), and scored 22 points in the victory Monday. Joe Johnson was on point from behind the arc going 5-for-5, and finished with 34 points on 12-of-18 shooting. Atlanta out-shot the Bulls 51% to 45% from the field, and made 54% of its threes (7-of-13) to Chicago’s 44% (8-of-18) from downtown. If Atlanta can win again at the United Center, this series may be all but done.

Chicago did not look like the team with the best record and the 8.5-point favorite in front of its stunned home crowd Monday. The Bulls only lost five games at home the whole regular season, but were outplayed basically the entire Game 1. Derrick Rose scored 24 points, but went 11-of-27 from the field and didn’t attempt a free throw. Yes, that was not a typo. Rose didn’t attempt a single free throw and settled for jump shots, which we all know is not his strength. At the end of the game, Rose stepped on the foot of the ball handler who was running out the clock and tweaked the same ankle he had problems with in the previous series. Fortunately for the Bulls, Rose said he was all right and ready to go Wednesday. Chicago will need strong front-court play from Carlos Boozer (10.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG in playoffs) and Joakim Noah (11.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG in playoffs) who combined for 25 points and 17 rebounds in Game 1. Luol Deng had a good game, scoring 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting, and will need to have another good performance Wednesday to keep the pressure off Derrick Rose.

Atlanta has been great against the spread during the playoffs going 6-1 ATS and 3-1 ATS when leading a playoff series. The Hawks have been average in road games (24-21 ATS) and as underdogs (22-19 ATS). Atlanta has had also success against Central Division opponents, going 12-7 ATS. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 home games and 2-4 ATS overall in the playoffs. The Bulls have been spectacular though after an upset loss this season, going 11-3 ATS. I like Derrick Rose to have a huge game and lead Chicago to a double-digit victory in front of a rowdy United Center crowd.

Some more FoxSheets trends leaning toward the Bulls include these three:

Play On - Home teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. (54-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +30.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season. (190-118 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.7%, +60.2 units. Rating = 2*).

CHICAGO is 15-6 ATS (71.4%, +8.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The average score was CHICAGO 101.7, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 1*).