NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 5 – Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -8.5, Total: 181

Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls look to use their rowdy fans at the United Center to regain the series lead over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5.

Josh Smith (14.7 PPG in playoffs) silenced the critics Sunday, by dropping 23 points and adding 16 rebounds with eight assists. People have never criticized Smith’s potential and ability, but rather his inconsistent play. Earlier in the series, Smith was settling for jump shots, but in the 100-88 victory Sunday, he took the ball to the rim using his uncanny jumping ability and filled-out, 6-foot-9 frame. Jeff Teague was solid once again while filling in for the injured Kirk Hinrich, scoring 12 points on 6-of-12 shooting. In the regular season Teague averaged 5.2 PPG and only played 13.8 MPG. In the series versus Chicago, Teague is averaging 16.0 PPG and playing 41.5 MPG. Teague, who is shooting 52 percent in the series, has been very effective in letting the game come to him and not forcing shots.

Derrick Rose had a nice line if you were to just peek in the newspaper and see 34 points and 10 assists. The problem was that Rose attempted 32 shots, only making 12 of them. This left the critics discussing if Rose should shoot less since he is technically a point guard. Rose didn’t have much help that night with the Bulls only shooting 3-of-16 from three-point land and the usually sharp shooting Kyle Korver going 0-for-5 from downtown. Carlos Boozer (10.7 PPG in playoffs) played well in Game 4, scoring 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Luol Deng must return to form to give Rose some help in the half-court offense. Deng averaged 17.4 PPG in the regular season but has only scored 20 points combined in the past two games, making just 8-of-24 shots from the floor.

Atlanta has been terrific against the spread during the postseason (7-3 ATS), but in the past three years they are just 2-9 ATS in the second round of the playoffs. The Hawks hopefully will not come out flat as they have most of the year following a win of 10+ points (8-14 ATS). Chicago is 3-11 ATS in its past 11 home games, but 12-3 ATS following an upset loss. The Bulls are also 26-19 ATS at home and 13-8 ATS against Southeast Division opponents. I think Chicago is going to play very well, but the Hawks have shown too much fight to lose by double digits. I like the Bulls to win straight up, but Atlanta to win against the spread. Some more FoxSheets trends supporting the Hawks to cover are:

ATLANTA is 24-13 ATS (64.9%, +9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs during the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 99.3, OPPONENT 94.2.

ATLANTA is 41-26 ATS (61.2%, +12.4 Units) against Central Division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 97.0, OPPONENT 94.6.

ATLANTA is 26-17 ATS (60.5%, +7.3 Units) after playing a game as an underdog this season. The average score was ATLANTA 92.5, OPPONENT 92.5.