NBA Western Conference Semifinals
Game 5 – Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -6.5, Total: 197.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder return home Wednesday to play the resilient Grizzlies in a pivotal Game 5.

Memphis needs to keep its spirits up after a heart-breaking 133-123, triple-overtime loss Monday to the Thunder. The Grizz fought back at the end of regulation with a deep three by Mike Conley to tie the game, and then tied the game again in the final seconds of the first overtime with an off-balance prayer from Greivis Vasquez with 9.4 seconds. The third overtime was set up by a tip-in by Marc Gasol who had 26 points and 21 rebounds. The Grizzlies finally came up short in the third overtime. Zach Randolph (23.1 PPG in playoffs) led the way with 34 points and added 16 rebounds. Memphis may have suffered a shot to the gut after a loss like that, but now know it can stick with the favored Thunder and handle whatever’s thrown its way.

The Thunder were a two-man show Monday with Russell Westbrook (26.1 PPG in playoffs) scoring 40 points and Kevin Durant (30.9 PPG in playoffs) adding 35 points and 13 rebounds. The critics have questioned Westbrook’s shot selection since he heaved up a whopping 33 shots and only finished with five assists. Many believe that Westbrook, who is supposed to be the point guard, should not be taking 13 more shots than Durant, who is one of the best scorers in the league. James Harden (12.1 PPG in playoffs) chipped in with 19 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in the Game 4 win.

Memphis has been phenomenal as an underdog this year going 30-13 ATS and 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Thunder are an average 30-30 ATS as a favorite and just 4-4 ATS in this year’s playoffs. I truly think the Grizzlies are more than just a hot team right now with their consistent inside play of Gasol and Randolph. I like Memphis to win and take control of the series with a hard-fought victory.

Two more highly-rated FoxSheets trends leaning towards Memphis are:

MEMPHIS is 31-12 ATS (72.1%, +17.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 101.0, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*).

MEMPHIS is 28-10 ATS (73.7%, +17.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 99.8, OPPONENT 99.0 - (Rating = 3*).