NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Finals
Game 2 – Dallas leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -5.5, Total: 200

Dirk Nowitzki will try to lead the Mavericks to a commanding 2-0 lead Thursday night, while the Thunder and Kevin Durant would love to steal one at the American Airlines Center.

Dirk Nowitzki (28.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG in playoffs) was the star in Tuesday night’s Game 1 with 48 points on 12-of-15 shooting, while making all 24 free throws he attempted. It doesn’t get more effective than 48 points on 15 shots, and Nowitzki also added six rebounds, four assists and four blocks. Dallas relies heavily on the 10-time All-Star, especially in the past 11 games. He averaged 29.8 PPG in the nine wins, but Nowitzki only had 22.5 PPG in the two losses. Jose Juan Barea (8.9 PPG, 3.5 APG in playoffs) supplied a terrific spark off the bench in Game 1, scoring 21 points on 8-of-12 FG in just 16 minutes of action. The Mavs like their chances in the series, considering Game 1 winners in a best-of-seven series have advanced 78.6 percent of the time.

After a tremendous first quarter Tuesday, Oklahoma City couldn’t keep up the hot shooting against the high-scoring Mavericks. The Thunder jumped out to a 27-20 first-quarter lead and all looked well. Dallas won every quarter from then on, and won the game 121-112. Kevin Durant (29.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG in playoffs) played well, scoring 40 points (10-18 FG, 18-19 FT) with eight boards and five assists. Russell Westbrook (23.6 PPG, 6.7 APG in playoffs) couldn’t shoot the ball into the ocean, going 3-of-15 and with more turnovers (four) than assists (three). Westbrook must distribute the ball better if the Thunder want to hang around in this series.

Oklahoma City has been average in road games (27-20 SU, 25-21 ATS) and also average as an underdog (15-16 SU, 17-13 ATS). But when trailing in a playoff series, the Thunder are 2-0 ATS this year and 5-1 ATS over the past three years. Oklahoma City is also 9-4-1 ATS in its past 14 meetings against the Mavs, including 6-1-1 ATS in Dallas, with the one defeat coming in Game 1.

Dallas has won nine in a row against the spread at home and is 11-0 ATS in this year’s playoffs. The Mavs love to play good teams and have been successful with a 35-16 ATS (69%) record against teams with a winning record. Dallas looks good on paper, but I think the Thunder have too much fight to go down 2-0 off the bat. I like Oklahoma City to battle on the road and steal one Thursday night, which is supported by these two FoxSheets trends.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-22 ATS (66.2%, +18.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 103.8, OPPONENT 98.2 - (Rating = 2*).

OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-21 ATS (66.1%, +17.9 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 104.8, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 2*).

The Over is 21-6 (78%) in the past 27 meetings between these teams in Dallas, and this FoxSheets trend also sides with the Over for Thursday’s Game 2.

Play Over - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY, DALLAS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (25-7 since 1996.) (78.1%, +17.3 units. Rating = 2*).