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A's-Giants begin 3-game set in San Francisco
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 5/20/2011  at  11:03:00 AM
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OAKLAND A’S (22-22)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (24-19)

First pitch: Friday, 10:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Oakland -115, San Francisco +105, Total: 6.5

The Bay Bridge Series gets underway Friday night when the Oakland A’s send red-hot Trevor Cahill to the mound to face Giants journeyman Ryan Vogelsong.

Oakland is looking to turn things around after losing two in a row to the Twins, who have the AL’s worst record. Minnesota outscored Oakland 15-4 in the two-game set, including an 11-1 pounding Thursday. The A’s may be in luck with their emerging ace, Trevor Cahill on the mound. Cahill had a break-through year in 2010 by winning 18 games and hasn’t slowed down in 2011. Cahill is 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA and will try to be the first seven-game winner of the season. Oakland is 25-10 in Cahill's past 35 starts. The Athletics need to do a better job of getting men on base considering they have the fourth-lowest on-base percentage (.307) in the majors. Daric Barton leads the club with a .331 OBP and lead-off hitter Coco Crisp only has a .307 OBP.

Ryan Vogelsong has surprised many with a 3-0 record and a 2.36 ERA, especially since he was 8-17 with a 6.94 ERA in 33 starts entering this season. The 33-year-old right-hander, took over the fifth spot in the rotation when Barry Zito went down in mid-April with a foot injury, and has not looked back since. Vogelsong has not surrendered a run in his past 13.1 innings and recently had his first shutout in a rain-shortened, six-inning game last Saturday versus the Cubs. His team is also playing well, as San Francisco has won two straight and nine of its past 12 games. Shortstop Miguel Tejada (.221 BA, 1 HR, 13 RBI) has been hot, going 7-for-16 with three RBI in his past four games. Tejada has 33 career interleague home runs.

Oakland has had problems in night games, going 11-16, and has also been unsuccessful against right-handed pitchers (13-19). The A’s have been good coming back from a loss though, as they are 13-8. The Giants are 10-5 in home games this year and a fantastic 17-9 in night games. San Fran is also 9-3 in its past 12 on grass and 7-1 in their past eight against the American League West Division. There are a lot of trends leaning toward the Giants, but I like Trevor Cahill to continue his dominance and shut them down at home, in a close, low-scoring victory.

Some more FoxSheets trends backing Oakland include these three:

Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (73-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (67%, +38.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor NL offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL. (51-20 since 1997.) (71.8%, +28.8 units. Rating = 3*).

TREVOR CAHILL is 16-6 (72.7%, +10.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was CAHILL 4.7, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*).


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